Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31343430›Full record

ArticleAIDS (London, England)2019

HIV estimates through 2018: data for decision-making.

Mary Mahy, Kimberly Marsh, Keith Sabin, Ian Wanyeki, Juliana Daher, Peter D Ghys

Open access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in AIDS (London, England), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 74 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
74citing papers in PubMed, 8 pooled it
8.1field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

74 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 108 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Pooled it
  7. Pooled it
  8. Pooled it
  9. Trial
  10. Trial
  11. "AIDS care · 2026
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. Article

14 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.

Mary MahyUNAIDS, Geneva, Switzerland.
Kimberly Marsh
Keith Sabin
Ian Wanyeki
Juliana Daher
Peter D Ghys
Creative Commons · USJoint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS · CHFundación Juan March · ES

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundGlobal targets call for a 75% reduction in new HIV infections and AIDS deaths between 2010 and 2020. UNAIDS supports countries to measure progress towards these targets. In 2019, this effort resulted in revised national, regional and global estimates reflecting the best available data.

methodsSpectrum software was used to develop estimates for 170 countries. Country teams from 151 countries developed HIV estimates directly and estimates for an additional 19 country were developed by UNAIDS based on available evidence. 107 countries employed models using HIV prevalence data from sentinel surveillance, routinely collected HIV testing and household surveys while the remaining 63 countries applied models using HIV case surveillance and/or reported AIDS deaths. Model parameters were informed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modeling and Projections.

resultsHIV estimates were available for 170 countries representing 99% of the global population. An estimated 37.9 million (uncertainty bounds 32.7-44.0 million) people were living with HIV in 2018. There were 1.7 million (1.4-2.3 million) new infections and 770 000 (570 000-1.1 million) AIDS-related deaths. New HIV infections declined in five of eight regions and AIDS deaths were declining in six of eight regions between 2010 and 2018.

conclusionThe estimates demonstrate progress towards ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030, however, through 2018 declines in new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths were not sufficient to meet global interim targets. The UNAIDS estimates have made important contributions to guide decisions about the HIV response at global, regional and country level.

Indexed as

Acquired Immunodeficiency SyndromeDecision MakingGlobal HealthHIV InfectionsHumansModels, TheoreticalPopulation Surveillance

Identifiers

PMID31343430
PMCPMC6919227
OpenAlexW2963288340

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.