Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31339888›Full record

ArticlePLoS computational biology2019

Predictions of time to HIV viral rebound following ART suspension that incorporate personal biomarkers.

Jessica M Conway, Alan S Perelson, Jonathan Z Li

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS computational biology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Characterization of HIV humoral immunity during analytical treatment interruption.Journal of clinical virology : the official publication of the Pan American Society for Clinical Virology · 2026
    Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Substantial uneven proliferation of CD4Journal of virus eradication · 2022
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Jessica M ConwayDepartment of Mathematics and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0003-1474-4230
Alan S PerelsonTheoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America.
Jonathan Z LiBrigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.

Funding

Leadership and Operations Center (LOC), AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG); LOC 1/UM1AI068636 · NIAID · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI Joseph J Eron, RAJESH T GANDHI · 2011 to 2026
$1073.1M
AIDS Clinical Trials Group NetworkU01AI068636 · NIAID · SOCIAL AND SCIENTIFIC SYSTEMS, INC. · PI KURITZKES, DANIEL R. · 2006 to 2010
$147.1M
Viral dynamics of rebound and control following early treatment of HIV/SIVP01AI131365 · NIAID · BOSTON COLLEGE · PI WHITNEY, JAMES BURTON · 2017 to 2021
$7.5M
Modeling Viral and T Lymphocyte DynamicsR01OD011095 · OD · TRIAD NATIONAL SECURITY, LLC · PI PERELSON, ALAN S · 2012 to 2024
$5.0M
Immune System Modeling/HIVR01AI028433 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIF-LOS ALAMOS NAT LAB · PI PERELSON, ALAN S · 1990 to 2021
$3.7M
NIAID NIH HHS P01 AI131365NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI028433NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI068636NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068636NIH HHS R01 OD011095
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. Suspension of therapy is followed by rebound of viral loads to high, pre-therapy levels. However, there is significant heterogeneity in speed of rebound, with some rebounds occurring within days, weeks, or sometimes years. We present a stochastic mathematical model to gain insight into these post-treatment dynamics, specifically characterizing the dynamics of short term viral rebounds (≤ 60 days). Li et al. (2016) report that the size of the expressed HIV reservoir, i.e., cell-associated HIV RNA levels, and drug regimen correlate with the time between ART suspension and viral rebound to detectable levels. We incorporate this information and viral rebound times to parametrize our model. We then investigate insights offered by our model into the underlying dynamics of the latent reservoir. In particular, we refine previous estimates of viral recrudescence after ART interruption by accounting for heterogeneity in infection rebound dynamics, and determine a recrudescence rate of once every 2-4 days. Our parametrized model can be used to aid in design of clinical trials to study viral dynamics following analytic treatment interruption. We show how to derive informative personalized testing frequencies from our model and offer a proof-of-concept example. Our results represent first steps towards a model that can make predictions on a person living with HIV (PLWH)'s rebound time distribution based on biomarkers, and help identify PLWH with long viral rebound delays.

Indexed as

Models, BiologicalAlgorithmsAnti-HIV AgentsBiomarkersComputational BiologyHIV InfectionsHumansLikelihood FunctionsRNA, ViralStochastic ProcessesTime FactorsT-LymphocytesViral LoadViremiaVirus LatencyWithholding TreatmentAnti-HIV AgentsBiomarkersRNA, Viral

Identifiers

PMID31339888
PMCPMC6682162

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.