Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31333201›Full record

ArticleJMIR mental health2019

Predicting Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Risk: A Machine Learning Approach.

Safwan Wshah, Christian Skalka, Matthew Price

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JMIR mental health, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
4.6field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 56 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Safwan Wshah *University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5051-7719
Christian SkalkaUniversity of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0402-809X
Matthew PriceUniversity of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5637-9230
University of Vermont · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundA majority of adults in the United States are exposed to a potentially traumatic event but only a handful go on to develop impairing mental health conditions such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

objectiveIdentifying those at elevated risk shortly after trauma exposure is a clinical challenge. The aim of this study was to develop computational methods to more effectively identify at-risk patients and, thereby, support better early interventions.

methodsWe proposed machine learning (ML) induction of models to automatically predict elevated PTSD symptoms in patients 1 month after a trauma, using self-reported symptoms from data collected via smartphones.

resultsWe show that an ensemble model accurately predicts elevated PTSD symptoms, with an area under the curve (AUC) of .85, using a bag of support vector machines, naive Bayes, logistic regression, and random forest algorithms. Furthermore, we show that only 7 self-reported items (features) are needed to obtain this AUC. Most importantly, we show that accurate predictions can be made 10 to 20 days posttrauma.

conclusionsThese results suggest that simple smartphone-based patient surveys, coupled with automated analysis using ML-trained models, can identify those at risk for developing elevated PTSD symptoms and thus target them for early intervention.

Indexed as

machine learningpredictive algorithmsPTSD

Identifiers

PMID31333201
PMCPMC6681635
OpenAlexW2947402118

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.