Telomere attrition predicts reduced survival in a wild social bird, but short telomeres do not.

Attempts to understand the causes of variation in senescence trajectories would benefit greatly from biomarkers that reflect the progressive declines in somatic integrity (SI) that lead to senescence. While telomere length has attracted considerable interest in this regard, sources of variation in telomere length potentially unrelated to declines in SI could, in some contexts, leave telomere attrition rates a more effective biomarker than telomere length alone. Here, we investigate whether telomere length and telomere attrition rates predict the survival of wild white-browed sparrow-weaver nestlings (Plocepasser mahali). Our analyses of telomere length reveal counterintuitive patterns: telomere length soon after hatching negatively predicted nestling survival to fledging, a pattern that appears to be driven by differentially high in-nest predation of broods with longer telomeres. Telomere length did not predict survival outside this period: neither hatchling telomere length nor telomere length in the mid-nestling period predicted survival from fledging to adulthood. Our analyses using within-individual telomere attrition rates, by contrast, revealed the expected relationships: nestlings that experienced a higher rate of telomere attrition were less likely to survive to adulthood, regardless of their initial telomere length and independent of effects of body mass. Our findings support the growing use of telomeric traits as biomarkers of SI, but lend strength to the view that longitudinal assessments of within-individual telomere attrition since early life may be a more effective biomarker in some contexts than telomere length alone.