ArticleInternational journal of biometeorology2019
Applicability of the universal thermal climate index for predicting the outbreaks of respiratory tract infections: a mathematical modeling approach.
Article in International journal of biometeorology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 23 citations in OpenAlex.
- Thermal indices for assessing the impact of outdoor thermal environments on human health: a systematic review of epidemiological studies.International journal of biometeorology · 2025Pooled it
- The impact of meteorological conditions on the occurrence of low back pain in a retrospective registry based population study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Impact of seasonal biometeorological conditions and particulate matter on asthma and COPD hospital admissions.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Influence of meteorological conditions on herpes zoster occurrence: a retrospective cohort study.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Impact of COVID-19 on antibiotic usage in primary care: a retrospective analysis.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Climate and human health: a review of publication trends in the International Journal of Biometeorology.International journal of biometeorology · 2023Review
- Impact of biometeorological conditions and air pollution on influenza-like illnesses incidence in Warsaw.International journal of biometeorology · 2021Article
- Assessment of the Consultation Rate with General Practitioners in the Initial Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Relationship between biometeorological factors and the number of hospitalizations due to asthma.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Are the Levels of Lipid Parameters Associated with Biometeorological Conditions?International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Observational
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Respiratory tract infections (RTI) are one of the most frequent reasons for medical consultations. As air temperature decreases, but also in connection with other meteorological parameters, evident seasonal fluctuations in the number of consultations for RTI can be observed. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is a complex meteorological index derived from an analysis of human thermal balance that depends on air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed. Our aims were to check if this index, although never used before for that purpose, is an adequate tool for forecasting seasonal increases in RTI prevalence. This study is a retrospective analysis of patients' consultations with general practitioners in the period of 2012-2015 (453,674 records) recorded in the city of Olsztyn (Poland), which is characterized by a cold climate type (Dfb). The values of air temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative air humidity, wind speed, and UTCI were used for a statistical analysis and a mathematical analysis of curve fitting in order to determine correlations between analyzed meteorological parameters and a number of medical consultations for RTI. Analysis of the number of medical consultations for RTI revealed an evident seasonal pattern in a 4-year observation period, with a strong inverse correlation between the number of patients with RTI and the UTCI. A statistically significant increase in the number of patients with RTI appeared when the UTCI decreased, especially when it reached the classes of strong cold stress and very strong cold stress. In conclusion, the UTCI is a valuable predictive parameter for forecasting seasonal increases in RTI cases. Its decrease may initiate a seasonal increased prevalence. This effect is strongest about the 10th day following a change in the thermal climate conditions and is not continuous. A larger number of consultations for RTI after weekends and holidays (the Monday effect) may blur the results of statistical analyses.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.