Risk Factors and Risk Scores for Predicting Early Recurrence After Curative Gastrectomy in Patients with Stage III Gastric Cancer.

backgroundWe revealed patients with pathological stage (pStage) III gastric cancer (GC) who had early recurrence within 12 months after curative surgery. We identified risk factors for predicting early recurrence in patients with pStage III GC who underwent curative gastrectomy.

methodsBetween January 2007 and December 2016, 758 patients underwent gastrectomy in our institution. This retrospective study included 96 patients with pStage III who were divided into two groups: early recurrence within 12 months (ERec) and non-ERec (nERec). We investigated clinicopathological differences between ERec and nERec and extracted risk factors, and constructed risk scores for ERec.

resultsOf the 96 patients, 20 (20.8%) were ERec and 76 (79.2%) were nERec. Pathological lymph node metastasis (pN) ≥ 14 (P = 0.03), preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) ≥ 37 IU/ml (P = 0.02), and blood loss (BL) ≥ 445 ml (P < 0.01) were independent risk factors for ERec in the multivariate analysis. In subgroup analysis, tumor size, clinical lymph node metastasis (cN), and CA19-9 were extracted for preoperative predictors for ERec. Risk scores were assigned to tumor size (< 65 mm, 0; ≥ 65 mm, 1), cN (cN-, 0; cN+, 2), and CA19-9 (< 37 IU/ml, 0; ≥ 37 IU/ml, 2). High-risk group (score, 4, 5) for ERec had significantly shorter relapse-free survival than those with low-risk group (score, 0-3) (P = 0.02).

conclusionsWe found pN ≥ 14, CA19-9 ≥ 37 IU/ml, and BL ≥ 445 ml were independent risk factors for ERec after curative gastrectomy in pStage III GC. Our risk score system may be useful to select patients with high risk of ERec preoperatively.