ArticlePloS one2019
Mathematical modeling of HIV-1 transmission risk from condomless anal intercourse in HIV-infected MSM by the type of initial ART.
Article in PloS one, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT03183154 (Mathematical Modeling of the HIV Transmission Risk During the First 24 Weeks After Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy in naïve HIV-infected MSM), which is not on this map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Mathematical Modeling of the HIV Transmission Risk During the First 24 Weeks After Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy in naïve HIV-infected MSM: Comparison of INSTI-based Regimens vs. nnRTI and PI Based Regimens.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 3 citations in OpenAlex.
- Computational solutions of the HIV-1 infection of CD4Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
- Initiation of antiretroviral therapy with integrase strand-transfer inhibitor-based regimens and reduction of the risk of horizontal transmission of HIV-1.EClinicalMedicine · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundInitiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection using regimens that include integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) is associated with a faster decline in HIV-1 RNA than what is observed with regimens that are anchored by other ART drug classes. We compared the impact of ART regimens that include dolutegravir (DTG), raltegravir (RAL), efavirenz (EFV), or darunavir/ritonavir (DRV/r), in treatment naïve men who have sex with men (MSM) on the probability of HIV-1 sexual transmission events (HIV-TE).
settingMathematical model.
methodsWe used discrete event simulation modeling to estimate HIV-TE during the first 8 weeks after initiation of ART. HIV-1 RNA decay in men was modeled from the databases of three clinical trials: Single (DTG vs. EFV), Spring-2 (DTG vs. RAL) and Flamingo (DTG vs. DRV/r).
resultsAll regimens substantially reduced the number of HIV-TE compared to no treatment. DTG led to fewer HIV-TE than its comparator in each of the three trials: 22.72% fewer transmissions than EFV; 0.52% fewer transmissions than RAL; and 38.67% fewer transmissions than DRV/r. The number of patients needed to treat with DTG to prevent one transmission event instead of comparator was 48 vs EFV, 2,194 vs RAL, and 31 vs DRV/r.
conclusionUnsurprisingly, this mathematical model showed that all regimens reduced HIV-TE compared to no treatment. The results also suggest that that initial use of INSTIs, by virtue of their superior viral decay kinetics, have the potential to reduce HIV-1 horizontal transmission following initiation of ART in naïve MSM.
trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT03183154.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.