ArticleEnvironmental health perspectives2019
Modeling Future Projections of Temperature-Related Excess Morbidity due to Infectious Gastroenteritis under Climate Change Conditions in Japan.
Article in Environmental health perspectives, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 27 citations in OpenAlex.
- Climate and climate-sensitive diseases in semi-arid regions: a systematic review.International journal of public health · 2020Pooled it
- Air Temperature and Gastroenteritis Among Rohingya Populations in Bangladesh Refugee Camps.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Article
- Enhancing health resilience in Japan in a changing climate.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2023Review
- Seasonal Patterns of Enteric Pathogens in Colombian Indigenous People-A More Pronounced Effect on Bacteria Than on Parasites.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Projecting Temperature-Attributable Mortality and Hospital Admissions due to Enteric Infections in the Philippines.Environmental health perspectives · 2022Article
- Article
- Relative Risk Prediction of Norovirus Incidence under Climate Change in Korea.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Association between Ambient Temperature and Severe Diarrhoea in the National Capital Region, Philippines.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Use of meteorological data in biosecurity.Emerging topics in life sciences · 2020Review
- Comparison of heat-illness associations estimated with different temperature metrics in the Australian Capital Territory, 2006-2016.International journal of biometeorology · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundClimate change has marked implications for the burden of infectious diseases. However, no studies have estimated future projections of climate change–related excess morbidity due to diarrhea according to climate change scenarios.
objectivesWe aimed to examine temperature-infectious gastroenteritis associations throughout Japan and project temperature-related morbidity concomitant with climate change for the 2090s.
methodsWeekly time series of average temperature and morbidity for infectious gastroenteritis cases in the period 2005-2015 were collated from the 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage time-series analysis was adopted to estimate temperature-infectious gastroenteritis relationships. Time series of present and future average daily temperature fluctuations were projected for the four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) according to five general circulation models. Excess morbidity for high and low temperatures and the net change in the period 1990–2099 were projected for each climate change scenario by assuming the absence of adaptation and population alterations.
resultsIn the period 2005–2015, 11,529,833 infectious gastroenteritis cases were reported. There were net reductions in temperature-induced excess morbidity under higher emission scenarios. The net change in the projection period 2090-2099 in comparison with 2010–2019 was [Formula: see text] (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: [Formula: see text], 0.5) for RCP2.6, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP4.5, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP6.0, and [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP8.5, and the higher the emissions scenario, the larger the estimates reductions. Spatial heterogeneity in the temperature-morbidity relationship was observed among prefectures (Cochran Q test, [Formula: see text]; [Formula: see text]).
conclusionsJapan may experience a net reduction in temperature-related excess morbidity due to infectious gastroenteritis in higher emission scenarios. These results might be because the majority of temperature-related diarrhea cases in Japan are attributable to viral infections during the winter season. Further projections of specific pathogen-induced infectious gastroenteritis due to climate change are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4731.
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