ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2019
How well do the FRAX (Australia) and Garvan calculators predict incident fractures? Data from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study.
Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 31 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- Systematic review of major osteoporotic fracture to hip fracture incidence rate ratios worldwide: implications for Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)-derived estimates.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2021Pooled it
- Predictive capacity of fracture risk assessment tools: overview of systematic reviews.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2025Review
- Ensemble-learning approach improves fracture prediction using genomic and phenotypic data.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2025Article
- Associations between ultra-distal forearm bone mineral density and incident fracture in women.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2024Article
- Fracture risk prediction in postmenopausal women from GO Study: the comparison between FRAX, Garvan, and POL-RISK algorithms.Archives of osteoporosis · 2024Article
- Development of a diverse osteoporosis screening tool for older US adults from the health and retirement study.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Optimal fracture prediction thresholds for therapy onset, established from FRAX and Garvan algorithms: a longitudinal observation of the population representative female cohort from the RAC-OST-POL Study.Archives of osteoporosis · 2023Article
- An enhanced version of FREM (Fracture Risk Evaluation Model) using national administrative health data: analysis protocol for development and validation of a multivariable prediction model.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2023Article
- BONEcheck: A digital tool for personalized bone health assessment.Osteoporosis and sarcopenia · 2023Article
- Ireland DXA-FRAX may differ significantly and substantially to Web-FRAX.Archives of osteoporosis · 2023Article
- Comparison between real-world practice and application of the FRAX algorithm in the treatment of osteoporosis.Aging clinical and experimental research · 2022Article
- Bisphosphonate Use for Glucocorticoid-Induced Osteoporosis in Elderly Patients with Immune Thrombocytopenia Receiving Prolonged Steroid Therapy: A Single Institute Retrospective Study.Hematology reports · 2022Article
- Comparison of fracture risk calculators in elderly fallers: a hospital-based cross-sectional study.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Prediction Models for Osteoporotic Fractures Risk: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal.Aging and disease · 2022Review
- Performance of HR-pQCT, DXA, and FRAX in the discrimination of asymptomatic vertebral fracture in postmenopausal Chinese women.Archives of osteoporosis · 2021Article
- High Alcohol Intake in Older Men and the Probability of Osteoporotic Fracture According to the FRAX Algorithm.Nutrients · 2021Article
- Five-year fracture risk assessment in postmenopausal women, using both the POL-RISK calculator and the Garvan nomogram: the Silesia Osteo Active Study.Archives of osteoporosis · 2021Article
- New Developments in Fracture Risk Assessment for Current Osteoporosis Reports.Current osteoporosis reports · 2020Review
- Association between dairy intake and fracture in an Australian-based cohort of women: a prospective study.BMJ open · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
This study reports that both FRAX and Garvan calculators underestimated fractures in Australian men and women, particularly in those with osteopenia or osteoporosis. Major osteoporotic fractures were poorly predicted, while both calculators performed acceptably well for hip fractures.
introductionThis study assessed the ability of the FRAX (Australia) and Garvan calculators to predict fractures in Australian women and men.
methodsWomen (n = 809) and men (n = 821) aged 50-90 years, enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study, were included. Fracture risk was estimated using FRAX and Garvan calculators with and without femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) (FRAX
resultsIn women, 115 MOF, 184 fragility, and 42 hip fractures occurred. For men, there were 73, 109, and 17 fractures, respectively. FRAX underestimated MOFs, regardless of sex or inclusion of BMD. FRAX accurately predicted hip fractures, except in women with BMD (20 predicted, p = 0.004). Garvan underestimated fragility fractures except in men using BMD (88 predicted, p = 0.109). Garvan accurately predicted hip fractures except for women without BMD (12 predicted, p < 0.001). Fractures were underestimated primarily in the osteopenia and osteoporosis groups; MOFs in the normal BMD group were only underestimated by FRAX
conclusionsOverall, the FRAX and Garvan calculators underestimated MOF and fragility fractures, particularly in individuals with osteopenia or osteoporosis. Hip fractures were predicted better by both calculators. AUROC analyses suggest that Garvan
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.