A novel approach for geographical risk mapping of morbidity and mortality rates: the case of Val D'Agri, Italy.

While associations between exposure to air pollutants and increased morbidity and mortality are well established, few rigorous studies on this issue are available. The aim of the current study is to implement a new approach to the spatial analysis of mortality and morbidity, based on testing for the presence of the same association in other areas of similar size. Additionally, we perform a case study in Val d'Agri (VA), an area of Basilicata Region, Southern Italy, where oil and natural gas extraction began in 1998. In order to examine the spatial distribution of morbidity and mortality in the region of interest, Hospital discharge (2001-2013) and mortality (2003-2014) rates for the main environment-related diseases were calculated. In addition, a comparison between the period 1980-1998 and the period 1999-2014 was performed for cardiovascular disease mortality. For the period under study, a neutral scenario emerged for cancer and respiratory diseases, where we found no differences in morbidity and mortality as compared to the national benchmark. In some cases significantly lower values (as compared to the nation-wide benchmark) were found. Conversely, a slight excess in morbidity and mortality (as compared to the nation-wide benchmark) emerged for cardiovascular diseases. Still, this excess was common to a number of municipalities in the surroundings of VA, and appeared to be already present in 1980. Higher rates of cardiovascular diseases, lower rates of neoplastic disorders no differences in mortality for respiratory causes (as compared to the nation-wide benchmark) were found in multiple areas of the region, and were therefore not specific to VA. In summary, our data do not support the hypothesis of a role of industrial activities related to oil extraction in VA in determining mortality and morbidity patterns and trends.