ArticlePloS one2019
Potential of active transport to improve health, reduce healthcare costs, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions: A modelling study.
Article in PloS one, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 89 citations in OpenAlex.
- Economics of Interventions to Increase Active Travel to School: A Community Guide Systematic Review.American journal of preventive medicine · 2021Pooled it
- Evaluating the Effectiveness of the School-Based Sustainable Innovation for Children Transporting Actively Intervention: Protocol for an Age-Cohort Study.JMIR research protocols · 2026Article
- Effectiveness and equity impacts of traffic restriction schemes outside schools: a controlled natural experimental study.The international journal of behavioral nutrition and physical activity · 2025Article
- Quantitative Health Impact Assessment of Environmental Exposures Linked to Urban Transport and Land Use in Europe: State of Research and Research Agenda.Current environmental health reports · 2025Review
- Characteristics of Combined Movement Behavior Interventions in Children and Adolescents: A Scoping Review.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2025Article
- Associations between parental perceptions of neighbourhood environments and active travel to school: IPEN Adolescent study.The international journal of behavioral nutrition and physical activity · 2025Observational
- Parental neighbourhood perceptions and active commuting to school in children according to their sex using a self-organised map approach: a cross-sectional study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Challenges and possibilities when doing research on active school travel interventions in a school setting - a non-randomized pilot study assessing feasibility of an evaluation design.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Incorporating active commuting into daily life: a narrative review of e-bikes' impact on health and urban air quality.Frontiers in sports and active living · 2025Review
- Primary healthcare's carbon footprint and sustainable strategies to mitigate its contribution: a scoping review.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Impact of climate change on paediatric respiratory health: pollutants and aeroallergens.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2024Review
- The untapped health and climate potential of cycling in France: a national assessment from individual travel data.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2024Article
- Advancing Population Health Through Open Environmental Data Platforms.Current topics in behavioral neurosciences · 2024Review
- Children's intervention participation is associated with more positive beliefs towards active school transportation among parents.Health promotion international · 2023Article
- Prioritization of intervention domains to prevent cardiovascular disease: a country-level case study using global burden of disease and local data.Population health metrics · 2023Article
- WalkRollMap.org: Crowdsourcing barriers to mobility.Frontiers in rehabilitation sciences · 2023Article
- Anatomical distribution of mandibular fractures from severe bicycling accidents: A 12-year experience from a Norwegian level 1 trauma center.Dental traumatology : official publication of International Association for Dental Traumatology · 2022Article
- The Impact of Transport on Population Health and Health Equity for Māori in Aotearoa New Zealand: A Prospective Burden of Disease Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Prescribing Smartphone Apps for Physical Activity Promotion in Primary Care: Modeling Study of Health Gain and Cost Savings.Journal of medical Internet research · 2021Article
- Tunneling a crosstown highway: a natural experiment testing the longitudinal effect on physical activity and active transport.The international journal of behavioral nutrition and physical activity · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPhysical inactivity contributes substantively to disease burden, especially in highly car dependent countries such as New Zealand (NZ). We aimed to quantify the future health gain, health-sector cost-savings, and change in greenhouse gas emissions that could be achieved by switching short vehicle trips to walking and cycling in New Zealand.
methodsWe used unit-level survey data to estimate changes in physical activity, distance travelled by mode, and air pollution for: (a) switching car trips under 1km to walking and (b) switching car trips under 5km to a mix of walking and cycling. We modelled uptake levels of 25%, 50%, and 100%, and assumed changes in transport behaviour were permanent. We then used multi-state life table modelling to quantify health impacts as quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and changes in health system costs over the rest of the life course of the NZ population alive in 2011 (n = 4.4 million), with 3% discounting.
findingsThe modelled scenarios resulted in health gains between 1.61 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 1.35 to 1.89) and 25.43 (UI 20.20 to 30.58) QALYs/1000 people, with total QALYs up to 112,020 (UI 88,969 to 134,725) over the remaining lifespan. Healthcare cost savings ranged between NZ$127million (UI $101m to 157m) and NZ$2.1billion (UI $1.6b to 2.6b). Greenhouse gas emissions were reduced by up to 194kgCO2e/year, though changes in emissions were not significant under the walking scenario.
conclusionsSubstantial health gains and healthcare cost savings could be achieved by switching short car trips to walking and cycling. Implementing infrastructural improvements and interventions to encourage walking and cycling is likely to be a cost-effective way to improve population health, and may also reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.