ArticleThe Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale2019
Epidemic Situation of Brucellosis in Jinzhou City of China and Prediction Using the ARIMA Model.
Article in The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Climatic Correlates of Brucellosis Transmission in a Semi-Arid Region of Xinjiang, China, 2015-2025: A Maximum Entropy Modeling Study Within a One Health Framework.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2026Article
- Most European countries will miss EU targets on antibacterial use by 2030: historical analysis of European and OECD countries, comparison of community and hospital sectors and forecast to 2040.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2025Article
- Respiratory pathogen dynamics in community fever cases: Jiangsu Province, China (2023-2024).Virology journal · 2024Article
- Modeling the time series of scorpion stings in Southwestern Iran.Archives of Razi Institute · 2024Article
- Predicting COVID-19 using lioness optimization algorithm and graph convolution network.Soft computing · 2023Article
- Prediction of global omicron pandemic using ARIMA, MLR, and Prophet models.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Epidemiology and time series analysis of human brucellosis in Tebessa province, Algeria, from 2000 to 2020.Journal of research in health sciences · 2022Article
- Article
- Comparison of ARIMA and LSTM for prediction of hemorrhagic fever at different time scales in China.PloS one · 2022Article
- Comparison of ARIMA model and XGBoost model for prediction of human brucellosis in mainland China: a time-series study.BMJ open · 2020Article
- Prediction of nosocomial infection incidence in the Department of Critical Care Medicine of Guizhou Province with a time series model.Annals of translational medicine · 2020Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveThis study aimed to investigate the specific epidemiological characteristics and epidemic situation of brucellosis in Jinzhou City of China so as to establish a suitable prediction model potentially applied as a decision-supportive tool for reasonably assigning health interventions and health delivery.
methodsMonthly morbidity data from 2004 to 2013 were selected to construct the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using SPSS 13.0 software. Moreover, stability analysis and sequence tranquilization, model recognition, parameter test, and model diagnostic were also carried out. Finally, the fitting and prediction accuracy of the ARIMA model were evaluated using the monthly morbidity data in 2014.
resultsA total of 3078 cases affected by brucellosis were reported from January 1998 to December 2015 in Jinzhou City. The incidence of brucellosis had shown a fluctuating growth gradually. Moreover, the ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)
conclusionIt is suitable to predict the incidence of brucellosis in Jinzhou City of China using the ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)
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