Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31311606›Full record

ArticleMalaria journal2019

Spatiotemporal epidemiology, environmental correlates, and demography of malaria in Tak Province, Thailand (2012-2015).

Chris Erwin G Mercado, Saranath Lawpoolsri, Prayuth Sudathip, Jaranit Kaewkungwal, Amnat Khamsiriwatchara, Wirichada Pan-Ngum, Surapon Yimsamran, Siam Lawawirojwong, Kevin Ho, Nattwut Ekapirat and 6 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Malaria journal, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
4.4field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 64 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Epidemiology of malaria and leishmaniasis in Thailand (2004-2025): A systematic review.Current research in parasitology & vector-borne diseases · 2026
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  11. Adolescents' Knowledge on Climate Change: A Nationwide Study in Indonesia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025
    Article
  12. Epidemiological Changes in Acute Febrile Diseases after the COVID-19 Pandemic in Thailand.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.

Chris Erwin G MercadoMahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand. cegmercado@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5588-9543
Saranath LawpoolsriDepartment of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4841-7924
Prayuth SudathipBureau of Vector-borne Diseases (BVBD), Department of Disease Control (DDC), Ministry of Public Health (MOPH), Nonthaburi, Thailand.
Jaranit KaewkungwalDepartment of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7916-8460
Amnat KhamsiriwatcharaCenter of Excellence for Biomedical and Public Health Informatics (BIOPHICS), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Wirichada Pan-NgumMahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9839-5359
Surapon YimsamranDepartment of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Siam LawawirojwongGeo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA), Bangkok, Thailand.
Kevin HoMahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Nattwut EkapiratMahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Rapeephan R MaudeMahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3383-3629
Jacher WiladphaingernMahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Verena I CarraraMahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2758-0872
Nicholas P J DayMahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Arjen M DondorpMahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5190-2395
Richard J MaudeMahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5355-0562
Mahidol University · THHarvard University · USMinistry of Public Health · THNational Science and Technology Development Agency · TH

Funding

Asian Development Bank TA-8656REG 47197-001Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation CPT000390Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1110500Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1129596
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTak Province, at the Thai-Myanmar border, is one of three high malaria incidence areas in Thailand. This study aimed to describe and identify possible factors driving the spatiotemporal trends of disease incidence from 2012 to 2015.

methodsClimate variables and forest cover were correlated with malaria incidence using Pearson's r. Statistically significant clusters of high (hot spots) and low (cold spots) annual parasite incidence per 1000 population (API) were identified using Getis-Ord Gi* statistic.

resultsThe total number of confirmed cases declined by 76% from 2012 to 2015 (Plasmodium falciparum by 81%, Plasmodium vivax by 73%). Incidence was highly seasonal with two main annual peaks. Most cases were male (62.75%), ≥ 15 years (56.07%), and of Myanmar (56.64%) or Thai (39.25%) nationality. Median temperature (1- and 2-month lags), average temperature (1- and 2-month lags) and average relative humidity (2- and 3-month lags) correlated positively with monthly total, P. falciparum and P. vivax API. Total rainfall in the same month correlated with API for total cases and P. vivax but not P. falciparum. At sub-district level, percentage forest cover had a low positive correlation with P. falciparum, P. vivax, and total API in most years. There was a decrease in API in most sub-districts for both P. falciparum and P. vivax. Sub-districts with the highest API were in the Tha Song Yang and Umphang Districts along the Thai-Myanmar border. Annual hot spots were mostly in the extreme north and south of the province.

conclusionsThere has been a large decline in reported clinical malaria from 2012 to 2015 in Tak Province. API was correlated with monthly climate and annual forest cover but these did not account for the trends over time. Ongoing elimination interventions on one or both sides of the border are more likely to have been the cause but it was not possible to assess this due to a lack of suitable data. Two main hot spot areas were identified that could be targeted for intensified elimination activities.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolEnvironmentFemaleHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, NewbornMalaria, FalciparumMalaria, VivaxMaleMiddle AgedClimateEpidemiologyForestMalariaRisk mappingSurveillanceThailand

Identifiers

PMID31311606
PMCPMC6636027
OpenAlexW2959677168

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.