Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31310333›Full record

ArticleThe British journal of surgery2019

External validation of a prognostic model to predict survival of patients with sentinel node-negative melanoma.

N A Ipenburg, O E Nieweg, T Ahmed, R van Doorn, R A Scolyer, G V Long, J F Thompson, S Lo

Abstract readValidation Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The British journal of surgery, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

N A IpenburgMelanoma Institute Australia, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-0679-4131
O E NiewegMelanoma Institute Australia, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
T AhmedMelanoma Institute Australia, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
R van DoornDepartment of Dermatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands.
R A ScolyerMelanoma Institute Australia, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
G V LongMelanoma Institute Australia, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
J F ThompsonMelanoma Institute Australia, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-2816-2496
S LoMelanoma Institute Australia, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-5092-5544

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIdentifying patients with sentinel node-negative melanoma at high risk of recurrence or death is important. The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) recently developed a prognostic model including Breslow thickness, ulceration and site of the primary tumour. The aims of the present study were to validate this prognostic model externally and to assess whether it could be improved by adding other prognostic factors.

methodsPatients with sentinel node-negative cutaneous melanoma were included in this retrospective single-institution study. The β values of the EORTC prognostic model were used to predict recurrence-free survival and melanoma-specific survival. The predictive performance was assessed by discrimination (c-index) and calibration. Seeking to improve the performance of the model, additional variables were added to a Cox proportional hazards model.

resultsSome 4235 patients with sentinel node-negative cutaneous melanoma were included. The median follow-up time was 50 (i.q.r. 18·5-81·5) months. Recurrences and deaths from melanoma numbered 793 (18·7 per cent) and 456 (10·8 per cent) respectively. Validation of the EORTC model showed good calibration for both outcomes, and a c-index of 0·69. The c-index was only marginally improved to 0·71 when other significant prognostic factors (sex, age, tumour type, mitotic rate) were added.

conclusionThis study validated the EORTC prognostic model for recurrence-free and melanoma-specific survival of patients with negative sentinel nodes. The addition of other prognostic factors only improved the model marginally. The validated EORTC model could be used for personalizing follow-up and selecting high-risk patients for trials of adjuvant systemic therapy.

Indexed as

AdultAgedArmDisease-Free SurvivalFemaleHead and Neck NeoplasmsHumansLegLymphatic MetastasisMaleMelanomaMiddle AgedModels, TheoreticalNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalNeoplasm StagingProspective Studies

Identifiers

PMID31310333
PMCPMC6790583

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.