ArticleBMC public health2019
A spatial-temporal statistical analysis of health seasonality: explaining HFMD infections within a children population along the Vietnamese south central coast.
Article in BMC public health, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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7 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease in Shandong Province, China.International health · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal filtering modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease: a case study from East China, 2009-2015.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Influencing factors of hand, foot, and mouth disease based on structural equation modeling in Hubei, China.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Global, regional, national epidemiology and trends of neglected tropical diseases in youths and young adults aged 15-39 years from 1990 to 2019: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Climate change and human health in Vietnam: a systematic review and additional analyses on current impacts, future risk, and adaptation.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2023Review
- Infectious Disease Relational Data Analysis Using String Grammar Non-Euclidean Relational Fuzzy C-Means.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018.Scientific reports · 2020Article
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4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundVarious neglected tropical diseases show spatially changing seasonality at small areas. This phenomenon has received little scientific attention so far. Our study contributes to advancing the understanding of its drivers. This study focuses on the effects of the seasonality of increasing social contacts on the incidence proportions at multiple district level of the childhood hand-foot-mouth disease in Da Nang city, Viet Nam from 2012 to 2016.
methodsWe decomposed the nonstationary time series of the incidence proportions for the nine spatial-temporal (S-T) strata in the study area, where S indicates the spatial and T the temporal stratum. The long-term trends and the seasonality are presented by the Fourier series. To study the effects of the monthly average ambient temperature and the period of preschooling, we developed a spatial-temporal autoregressive model.
resultsSeasonality of childhood hand-foot-mouth disease incidence proportions shows two peaks in all spatial strata annually: large peaks synchronously in April and small ones asynchronously during the preschooling period. The peaks of the average temperature are asynchronous with the seasonal peaks of the childhood hand-foot-mouth disease incidence proportions in the period between January and May, with the negative values of the regression coefficients for all spatial strata, respectively: [Formula: see text]. The increasingly cumulative preschooling period and the seasonal component of the incidence proportions are negatively correlated in the period between August and December, with the negative values of the regression coefficients for all temporal strata, respectively: [Formula: see text].
conclusionsThe study shows that social contact amongst children under five years of age is the important driving factor of the dynamics of the childhood hand-foot-mouth disease outbreaks in the study area. The preschooling season when children's contact with each other increases stimulates the geographical variation of the seasonality of childhood hand-foot-mouth disease infections at small areas in the study area.
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