Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31292995›Full record

ArticleStatistics in medicine2019

A modelling approach for correcting reporting delays in disease surveillance data.

Leonardo S Bastos, Theodoros Economou, Marcelo F C Gomes, Daniel A M Villela, Flavio C Coelho, Oswaldo G Cruz, Oliver Stoner, Trevor Bailey, Claudia T Codeço

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Statistics in medicine, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 60 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
60citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

60 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Review
  4. Article
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  15. Real-time monitoring of excess mortality under a new endemic regime.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025
    Article
  16. Article
  17. A renewal-equation approach to estimatingPhilosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Leonardo S BastosScientific Computing Program, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-1406-0122
Theodoros EconomouDepartment of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Marcelo F C GomesScientific Computing Program, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Daniel A M VillelaScientific Computing Program, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Flavio C CoelhoSchool of Applied Mathematics, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Oswaldo G CruzScientific Computing Program, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Oliver StonerDepartment of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Trevor BaileyDepartment of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Claudia T CodeçoScientific Computing Program, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

One difficulty for real-time tracking of epidemics is related to reporting delay. The reporting delay may be due to laboratory confirmation, logistical problems, infrastructure difficulties, and so on. The ability to correct the available information as quickly as possible is crucial, in terms of decision making such as issuing warnings to the public and local authorities. A Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach is proposed as a flexible way of correcting the reporting delays and to quantify the associated uncertainty. Implementation of the model is fast due to the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation. The approach is illustrated on dengue fever incidence data in Rio de Janeiro, and severe acute respiratory infection data in the state of Paraná, Brazil.

Indexed as

Bayes TheoremComputer SimulationEpidemicsHumansPublic Health SurveillanceBayesian hierarchical modeldengueINLAreporting delaySARI

Identifiers

PMID31292995
PMCPMC6900153

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.