SynthesisJournal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN2019
GFR Slope as a Surrogate End Point for Kidney Disease Progression in Clinical Trials: A Meta-Analysis of Treatment Effects of Randomized Controlled Trials.
Synthesis in Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07719621 (Implication of Albuminuria Reduction and Other Cardiorenal Effects on The Risk of Heart Failure in Patients With CKD and T2D), which is not on this map. Cited by 158 papers, 12 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Implication of Albuminuria Reduction and Other Cardiorenal Effects on The Risk of Heart Failure in Patients With CKD and T2D
Who cites it
158 citing papers in PubMed, 12 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 281 citations in OpenAlex.
- Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Change and Heart Failure Events With GLP-1 Receptor Agonists: A Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression of Randomised Controlled Trials.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2026Pooled it
- Telitacicept for IgA nephropathy: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Association Between Surrogate Endpoints and Clinical Outcomes in Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy: A Systematic Literature Review.Advances in therapy · 2025Pooled it
- Effect of intensive versus standard blood pressure control on cardiovascular outcomes in adult patients with hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Hypertension research : official journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension · 2025Pooled it
- Guidelines for clinical evaluation of chronic kidney disease in early stages : AMED research on regulatory science of pharmaceuticals and medical devices.Clinical and experimental nephrology · 2024Guideline
- Handling missing within-study correlations in the evaluation of surrogate endpoints.Statistics in medicine · 2023Pooled it
- A meta-analysis of GFR slope as a surrogate endpoint for kidney failure.Nature medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Treatments for Chronic Kidney Disease: A Systematic Literature Review of Randomized Controlled Trials.Advances in therapy · 2022Pooled it
- Association of Treatment Effects on Early Change in Urine Protein and Treatment Effects on GFR Slope in IgA Nephropathy: An Individual Participant Meta-analysis.American journal of kidney diseases : the official journal of the National Kidney Foundation · 2021Pooled it
- Sulodexide for Diabetic-Induced Disabilities: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Advances in therapy · 2021Pooled it
- Evaluating Glomerular Filtration Rate Slope as a Surrogate End Point for ESKD in Clinical Trials: An Individual Participant Meta-Analysis of Observational Data.Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN · 2019Pooled it
- Performance of GFR Slope as a Surrogate End Point for Kidney Disease Progression in Clinical Trials: A Statistical Simulation.Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN · 2019Pooled it
- Sustained improvement in renal function with palopegteriparatide in adults with chronic hypoparathyroidism: 2-year results from the phase 3 PaTHway-trial.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2026Trial
- Long-term kidney outcomes of semaglutide in obesity and cardiovascular disease in the SELECT trial.Nature medicine · 2024Trial
- A hierarchical kidney outcome using win statistics in patients with heart failure from the DAPA-HF and DELIVER trials.Nature medicine · 2024Trial
- The effect of micro-particle curcumin on chronic kidney disease progression: the MPAC-CKD randomized clinical trial.Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association · 2023Trial
- Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Kidney Disease Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: Post Hoc Analyses From the DECLARE-TIMI 58 Trial.Diabetes care · 2022Trial
- Ertugliflozin and Slope of Chronic eGFR: Prespecified Analyses from the Randomized VERTIS CV Trial.Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN · 2021Trial
- Luseogliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, preserves renal function irrespective of acute changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes.Hypertension research : official journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension · 2020Trial
- Trial
98 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 11 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSurrogate end points are needed to assess whether treatments are effective in the early stages of CKD. GFR decline leads to kidney failure, but regulators have not approved using differences in the change in GFR from the beginning to the end of a randomized, controlled trial as an end point in CKD because it is not clear whether small changes in the GFR slope will translate to clinical benefits.
methodsTo assess the use of GFR slope as a surrogate end point for CKD progression, we performed a meta-analysis of 47 RCTs that tested 12 interventions in 60,620 subjects. We estimated treatment effects on GFR slope (mean difference in GFR slope between the randomized groups), for the total slope starting at baseline, chronic slope starting at 3 months after randomization, and on the clinical end point (doubling of serum creatinine, GFR<15 ml/min per 1.73 m
resultsAcross all studies, the treatment effect on 3-year total GFR slope (median
conclusionsWith large enough sample sizes, GFR slope may be a viable surrogate for clinical end points in CKD RCTs.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.