Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31292139›Full record

SynthesisCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology2019

Risk Prediction Models for Colorectal Cancer Incorporating Common Genetic Variants: A Systematic Review.

Luke McGeoch, Catherine L Saunders, Simon J Griffin, Jon D Emery, Fiona M Walter, Deborah J Thompson, Antonis C Antoniou, Juliet A Usher-Smith

Open access · bronzeAbstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
3.9field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 74 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Guideline
  3. Pooled it
  4. Validation of a Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Model in US Black Women.Cancer prevention research (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2026
    Article
  5. Polygenic risk scores in cancer.Medizinische Genetik : Mitteilungsblatt des Berufsverbandes Medizinische Genetik e.V · 2026
    Article
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  14. Public Preferences for Determining Eligibility for Screening in Risk-Stratified Cancer Screening Programs: A Discrete Choice Experiment.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2023
    Article
  15. Validation of a Genetic-Enhanced Risk Prediction Model for Colorectal Cancer in a Large Community-Based Cohort.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2023
    Article
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  17. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 3 countries.

Luke McGeochSchool of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Catherine L SaundersThe Primary Care Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Simon J GriffinThe Primary Care Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-2157-4797
Jon D EmeryThe Primary Care Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-5274-6336
Fiona M WalterThe Primary Care Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-7191-6476
Deborah J ThompsonCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Strangeways Research Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-1465-5799
Antonis C AntoniouCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Strangeways Research Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-9223-3116
Juliet A Usher-SmithThe Primary Care Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom. jau20@medschl.cam.ac.uk.
University of Cambridge · GBMRC Epidemiology Unit · GB

Funding

Cancer Research UK 20861Cancer Research UK 21464Cancer Research UK A20861Cancer Research UK A21464Cancer Research UK C12292/A20861Cancer Research UK C55650/A21464Medical Research Council MC_UU_12015/4
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Colorectal cancer screening reduces colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Risk models based on phenotypic variables have relatively good discrimination in external validation and may improve efficiency of screening. Models incorporating genetic variables may perform better. In this review, we updated our previous review by searching Medline and EMBASE from the end date of that review (January 2014) to February 2019 to identify models incorporating at least one SNP and applicable to asymptomatic individuals in the general population. We identified 23 new models, giving a total of 29. Of those in which the SNP selection was on the basis of published genome-wide association studies, in external or split-sample validation the AUROC was 0.56 to 0.57 for models that included SNPs alone, 0.61 to 0.63 for SNPs in combination with other risk factors, and 0.56 to 0.70 when age was included. Calibration was only reported for four. The addition of SNPs to other risk factors increases discrimination by 0.01 to 0.06. Public health modeling studies suggest that, if determined by risk models, the range of starting ages for screening would be several years greater than using family history alone. Further validation and calibration studies are needed alongside modeling studies to assess the population-level impact of introducing genetic risk-based screening programs.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalBiomarkers, TumorColorectal NeoplasmsEarly Detection of CancerGenome-Wide Association StudyHumansPolymorphism, Single NucleotidePredictive Value of TestsPrognosisRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsBiomarkers, Tumor

Identifiers

PMID31292139
PMCPMC7610631
OpenAlexW2962039734

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.