ReviewEcology letters2019
Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease.
Review in Ecology letters, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 382 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
382 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Co-circulating pathogens of humans: a systematic review of mechanistic transmission models.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2025Pooled it
- Warmer Is Deadlier: A Meta-Analysis Reveals Increasing Temperatures Accentuate Disease Effects on Fisheries Hosts.Ecology letters · 2025Pooled it
- Understanding the Effect of a Changing Climate on the Re-Emergence of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Vulnerable Small Island Nations: A Systematic Review.Zoonoses and public health · 2025Pooled it
- Post-establishment environmental suitability ofOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Agriculture-urban interfaces, social vulnerability and climate change shape West Nile virus risk across the United States.Biology letters · 2026Article
- Novel environmental risk index reveals uneven impact of climate change on fascioliasis risk across Africa and Europe.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Explainable Machine Learning for Predicting Global Malaria Incidence From 2000 to 2022 With Climatic and Extreme Weather Conditions Across 78 Endemic Countries: A Retrospective Ecological Study.Health science reports · 2026Article
- Mosquito population dynamics are shaped by interactions among larval density, temperature, and relative humidity.Ecology · 2026Article
- The Role of Wildlife and Climate Change in the Emergence of One Health-Related Viral Diseases in Australia.Viruses · 2026Review
- Climate Change-Mediated Temperature Extremes: Effects on the Immune System and Associations with Immune-Related Diseases.Clinical reviews in allergy & immunology · 2026Review
- Coupling experiments and macroecological models to resolve multi-stressor effects in vector-pathogen systems.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026Article
- Impacts of climate change on dengue.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026Article
- Chikungunya waves in 2025 signal risk of endemicity in China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Article
- Landscape Heterogeneity Predicts Mosquito Vector Diversity in a Semi-arid Urbanization.EcoHealth · 2026Article
- Environmental and demographic determinants of Aedes albopictus seasonal activity in southern France: A modeling study.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- ENSO Impact on Global Chikungunya Virus Transmission, 2008-2024: A Multi-Country Distributed-Lag Time-Series Analysis.Viruses · 2026Article
- Mosquito infection-mediated trait variation alters temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Epidemiology of dengue fever in Ethiopia: Insights from a systematic review and meta-analysis.Parasite epidemiology and control · 2026Article
- Chikungunya virus: global epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and emerging challenges for public health.Infection · 2026Review
322 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.