ArticleThe Lancet. Infectious diseases2019
Global burden of latent multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: trends and estimates based on mathematical modelling.
Article in The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 81 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
81 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Global and regional trends in multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis, 2000-2024 with forecasts to 2030: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Pooled it
- The effectiveness of isoniazid preventive treatment among contacts of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Mathematical models of drug-resistant tuberculosis lack bacterial heterogeneity: A systematic review.PLoS pathogens · 2024Pooled it
- Type 2 diabetes mellitus and antibiotic-resistant infections: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2022Pooled it
- HIV infection and multidrug resistant tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Pooled it
- Review
- Detection for New Biomarkers of Tuberculosis Infection Activity Using Machine Learning Methods.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Glutathione-Mediated Redox Regulation of Immune Dysfunction in COVID-19 and Tuberculosis.Antioxidants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Preventing Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis: The Dawn of a New Era.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Review
- Comparison of the diagnostic value of targeted next-generation sequencing, metagenomic next-generation sequencing, and Xpert MTB/RIF in adult pulmonary tuberculosis.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Alterations in the Immune Response in Individuals with Latent Tuberculosis Infection.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Article
- Article
- Protecting households on exposure to newly diagnosed index multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients: Study protocol for the PHOENIx phase 3 clinical trial.Contemporary clinical trials · 2025Article
- A wake-up call for India to improve the TB elimination strategies.Pediatric research · 2025Article
- Evaluation of integration in WHO's tuberculosis, HIV, and antimicrobial resistance policies through the social-ecological lens.Globalization and health · 2025Article
- Coexisting Lung Cancer and Pulmonary Tuberculosis: A Comprehensive Review From Incidence to Management.Cancer reports (Hoboken, N.J.) · 2025Review
- Sensitive diagnosis of paucibacillary tuberculosis with targeted next-generation sequencing: a molecular diagnostic study.BMC medicine · 2025Article
- Tuberculosis Preventive Treatment in High TB-Burden Settings: A State-of-the-Art Review.Drugs · 2025Review
- Immunological testing and machine learning in detecting latent tuberculosis among high-risk groups (nature review).Frontiers in medicine · 2025Review
21 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundTo end the global tuberculosis epidemic, latent tuberculosis infection needs to be addressed. All standard treatments for latent tuberculosis contain drugs to which multidrug-resistant (MDR) Mycobacterium tuberculosis is resistant. We aimed to estimate the global burden of multidrug-resistant latent tuberculosis infection to inform tuberculosis elimination policy.
methodsBy fitting a flexible statistical model to tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance and survey data collated by WHO, we estimated national trends in the proportion of new tuberculosis cases that were caused by MDR strains. We used these data as a proxy for the proportion of new infections caused by MDR M tuberculosis and multiplied trends in annual risk of infection from previous estimates of the burden of latent tuberculosis to generate trends in the annual risk of infection with MDR M tuberculosis. These estimates were used in a cohort model to estimate changes in the global and national prevalence of latent infection with MDR M tuberculosis. We also estimated recent infection levels (ie, in 2013 and 2014) and made predictions for the future burden of MDR tuberculosis in 2035 and 2050.
findings19·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 16·4 million-21·7 million) people were latently infected with MDR tuberculosis in 2014-a global prevalence of 0·3% (95% UI 0·2-0·3). MDR strains accounted for 1·2% (95% UI 1·0-1·4) of the total latent tuberculosis burden overall, but for 2·9% (95% UI 2·6-3·1) of the burden among children younger than 15 years (risk ratio for those younger than 15 years vs those aged 15 years or older 2·65 [95% UI 2·11-3·25]). Recent latent infection with MDR M tuberculosis meant that 1·9 million (95% UI 1·7 million-2·3 million) people globally were at high risk of active MDR tuberculosis in 2015.
interpretationWe estimate that three in every 1000 people globally carry latent MDR tuberculosis infection, and prevalence is around ten times higher among those younger than 15 years. If current trends continue, the proportion of latent tuberculosis caused by MDR strains will increase, which will pose serious challenges for management of latent tuberculosis-a cornerstone of tuberculosis elimination strategies.
fundingUK Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and European Research Council.
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