Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31280963›Full record

ArticleCell2019

Dynamic Risk Profiling Using Serial Tumor Biomarkers for Personalized Outcome Prediction.

David M Kurtz, Mohammad S Esfahani, Florian Scherer, Joanne Soo, Michael C Jin, Chih Long Liu, Aaron M Newman, Ulrich Dührsen, Andreas Hüttmann, Olivier Casasnovas and 13 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Cell, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT00769522 (Phase III Trial of Combined Immunochemotherapy With Fludarabine, Cyclophosphamide and Rituximab), which is not on this map. Cited by 123 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
123citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT00769522 phase3completednot on this map

Phase III Trial of Combined Immunochemotherapy With Fludarabine, Cyclophosphamide and Rituximab (FCR) Versus Bendamustine and Rituximab (BR) in Patients With Previously Untreated Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia

TypeinterventionalSponsorGerman CLL Study GroupRan2008 to 2018Enrolled564ConditionsChronic Lymphocytic LeukemiaArmsRituximab, Bendamustine, Cyclophosphamide, Fludarabine
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

123 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  14. Refined Continuous Risk Index for Accurately Predicting Outcomes of Patients With Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia After Limited-Duration Therapy.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2026
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63 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

23 authors.

David M KurtzDivision of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Division of Hematology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Department of Bioengineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Mohammad S EsfahaniDivision of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Florian SchererDivision of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Joanne SooDivision of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Michael C JinDivision of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Chih Long LiuDivision of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Aaron M NewmanDivision of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Institute for Stem Cell Biology and Regenerative Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Ulrich DührsenDepartment of Hematology, University Hospital Essen, Essen, Germany.
Andreas HüttmannDepartment of Hematology, University Hospital Essen, Essen, Germany.
Olivier CasasnovasDepartment of Hematology, Hopital F. Mitterrand, CHU Dijon and INSERM 1231, Dijon, France.
Jason R WestinDepartment of Lymphoma/Myeloma, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA.
Matthais RitgenDepartment II of Internal Medicine, Campus Kiel, University of Schleswig-Holstein, Kiel, Germany.
Sebastian BöttcherDepartment III of Internal Medicine, University Hospital Rostock, Rostock, Germany.
Anton W LangerakDepartment of Immunology, Laboratory Medical Immunology, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Mark RoschewskiLymphoid Malignancies Branch, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, NIH, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Wyndham H WilsonLymphoid Malignancies Branch, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, NIH, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Gianluca GaidanoDivision of Hematology, Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, Novara, Italy.
Davide RossiHematology, Oncology Institute of Southern Switzerland and Institute of Oncology Research, Bellinzona, Switzerland.
Jasmin BahloGerman CLL Study Group, Department I of Internal Medicine and Center of Integrated Oncology Cologne Bonn, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Michael HallekGerman CLL Study Group, Department I of Internal Medicine and Center of Integrated Oncology Cologne Bonn, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Cologne Cluster of Excellence on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Related Diseases (CECAD), University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Robert TibshiraniDepartment Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Maximilian DiehnInstitute for Stem Cell Biology and Regenerative Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. Electronic address: diehn@stanford.edu.
Ash A AlizadehDivision of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Division of Hematology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Institute for Stem Cell Biology and Regenerative Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. Electronic address: arasha@stanford.eduSummary.

Funding

Molecular Biology of LymphomaZIABC011914 · NCI · DIVISION OF BASIC SCIENCES - NCI · PI ROSCHEWSKI, MARK · 2019 to 2025
$5.5M
Modeling the Molecular Determinants of Induced Anti-Tumor Immune Responses in Mantle Cell LymphomaU01CA194389 · NCI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI ALIZADEH, ASH ARASH, DAVIS, MARK MORRIS · 2015 to 2019
$3.1M
Analysis of urine tumor nucleic acids for detection and personalized surveillance of bladder cancerR01CA244526 · NCI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI ALIZADEH, ASH ARASH, DIEHN, MAXIMILIAN · 2020 to 2024
$3.0M
A Noninvasive Integrated Genomic Approach for Early Cancer Detection and Risk Stratification after TransplantationR01CA229766 · NCI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI ALIZADEH, ASH ARASH, KHUSH, KIRAN KAUR · 2019 to 2023
$3.0M
A Genomic Framework for Molecular Risk Prediction & Individualized Lymphoma TherapyR01CA233975 · NCI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI ALIZADEH, ASH ARASH, DIEHN, MAXIMILIAN · 2019 to 2023
$2.8M
Developing a genomic approach for cancer screeningDP2CA186569 · NCI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI DIEHN, MAXIMILIAN · 2013 to 2013
$2.4M
Cancer Systems Biology Scholars ProgramR25CA180993 · NCI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI PLEVRITIS, SYLVIA KATINA · 2014 to 2018
$2.2M
Noninvasive monitoring of lung cancer patients treated with radiotherapyR01CA188298 · NCI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI ALIZADEH, ASH ARASH, DIEHN, MAXIMILIAN · 2015 to 2019
$1.8M
Molecular Characterization and Personalized Approaches to Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma from Circulating Tumor DNAK08CA241076 · NCI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI KURTZ, DAVID MATTHEW · 2019 to 2023
$957k
NCI NIH HHS DP2 CA186569NCI NIH HHS K08 CA241076NCI NIH HHS R01 CA188298NCI NIH HHS R01 CA229766NCI NIH HHS R01 CA233975NCI NIH HHS R01 CA244526NCI NIH HHS R25 CA180993NCI NIH HHS U01 CA194389
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Accurate prediction of long-term outcomes remains a challenge in the care of cancer patients. Due to the difficulty of serial tumor sampling, previous prediction tools have focused on pretreatment factors. However, emerging non-invasive diagnostics have increased opportunities for serial tumor assessments. We describe the Continuous Individualized Risk Index (CIRI), a method to dynamically determine outcome probabilities for individual patients utilizing risk predictors acquired over time. Similar to "win probability" models in other fields, CIRI provides a real-time probability by integrating risk assessments throughout a patient's course. Applying CIRI to patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma, we demonstrate improved outcome prediction compared to conventional risk models. We demonstrate CIRI's broader utility in analogous models of chronic lymphocytic leukemia and breast adenocarcinoma and perform a proof-of-concept analysis demonstrating how CIRI could be used to develop predictive biomarkers for therapy selection. We envision that dynamic risk assessment will facilitate personalized medicine and enable innovative therapeutic paradigms.

Indexed as

Precision MedicineAlgorithmsAntineoplastic AgentsBiomarkers, TumorBreast NeoplasmsCirculating Tumor DNAFemaleHumansKaplan-Meier EstimateLymphoma, Large B-Cell, DiffuseNeoadjuvant TherapyPrognosisProgression-Free SurvivalProportional Hazards ModelsRisk AssessmentTreatment OutcomeAntineoplastic AgentsBiomarkers, TumorCirculating Tumor DNAbiomarkerscancerliquid biopsypersonalized medicinepredictive modeling

Identifiers

PMID31280963
PMCPMC7380118

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.