Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31272385›Full record

ArticleBMC gastroenterology2019

Development and validation of three machine-learning models for predicting multiple organ failure in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis.

Qiu Qiu, Yong-Jian Nian, Yan Guo, Liang Tang, Nan Lu, Liang-Zhi Wen, Bin Wang, Dong-Feng Chen, Kai-Jun Liu

Registry-linked trialOpen access · goldAbstract readEvaluation Study
In one paragraph

Article in BMC gastroenterology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04735055 (Artificial Intelligence Application in Predicting Disease Severity in Acute Pancreatitis), which is not on this map. Cited by 24 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed
6.8field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT04735055 completednot on this mapstarted 2020, after this paper: background citation

Artificial Intelligence Application in Predicting Disease Severity in Acute Pancreatitis

TypeobservationalSponsorBezmialem Vakif UniversityRan2020 to 2020Enrolled1,334ConditionsAcute Pancreatitis, Artificial Intelligence, Outcome, Fatal
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 67 citations in OpenAlex.

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  10. A Machine Learning Approach Using [Molecular imaging and biology · 2023
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  13. How Does Government Efficiency Affect Health Outcomes? The Empirical Evidence from 156 Countries.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Qiu QiuDepartment of Gastroenterology, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400042, China.
Yong-Jian NianDepartment of Medical Images, College of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400038, China.
Yan GuoDepartment of Gastroenterology, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400042, China.
Liang TangDepartment of Gastroenterology, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400042, China.
Nan LuDepartment of Medical Images, College of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400038, China.
Liang-Zhi WenDepartment of Gastroenterology, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400042, China.
Bin WangDepartment of Gastroenterology, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400042, China.
Dong-Feng ChenDepartment of Gastroenterology, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400042, China. chendf1981@126.com.
Kai-Jun LiuDepartment of Gastroenterology, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400042, China. kliu_tmmu@126.com.
Army Medical University · CNDaping Hospital · CN

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China NO.81700483
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMultiple organ failure (MOF) is a serious complication of moderately severe (MASP) and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). This study aimed to develop and assess three machine-learning models to predict MOF.

methodsPatients with MSAP and SAP who were admitted from July 2014 to June 2017 were included. Firstly, parameters with significant differences between patients with MOF and without MOF were screened out by univariate analysis. Then, support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression analysis (LRA) and artificial neural networks (ANN) models were constructed based on these factors, and five-fold cross-validation was used to train each model.

resultsA total of 263 patients were enrolled. Univariate analysis screened out sixteen parameters referring to blood volume, inflammatory, coagulation and renal function to construct machine-learning models. The predictive efficiency of the optimal combinations of features by SVM, LRA, and ANN was almost equal (AUC = 0.840, 0.832, and 0.834, respectively), as well as the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (AUC = 0.814, P > 0.05). The common important predictive factors were HCT, K-time, IL-6 and creatinine in three models.

conclusionsThree machine-learning models can be efficient prognostic tools for predicting MOF in MSAP and SAP. ANN is recommended, which only needs four common parameters.

Indexed as

Machine LearningSeverity of Illness IndexAcute DiseaseAdultAPACHEFemaleHumansLogistic ModelsMaleMiddle AgedMultiple Organ FailurePancreatitisPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentMachine learningMultiple organ failurePancreatitis

Identifiers

PMID31272385
PMCPMC6611034
OpenAlexW2954691525

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.