Fathoming sea turtles: monitoring strategy evaluation to improve conservation status assessments.

Population monitoring must be accurate and reliable to correctly classify population status. For sea turtles, nesting beach surveys are often the only population-level surveys that are accessible. However, process and observation errors, compounded by delayed maturity, obscure the relationship between trends on the nesting beach and the population. We present a simulation-based tool, monitoring strategy evaluation (MoSE), to test the relationships between monitoring data and assessment accuracy, using green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, as a case study. To explore this first application of MoSE, we apply different treatments of population impacts to virtual true populations, and sample the nests or nesters, with observation error, to test if the observation data can be used to diagnose population status accurately. Based on the observed data, we examine population trend and compare it to the known values from the operating model. We ran a series of scenarios including harvest impacts, cyclical breeding probability, and sampling biases, to see how these factors impact accuracy in estimating population trend. We explored the necessary duration of monitoring for accurate trend estimation and the probability of a false trend diagnosis. Our results suggest that disturbance type and severity can have important and persistent effects on the accuracy of population assessments drawn from monitoring nesting beaches. The underlying population phase, age classes disturbed, and impact severity influenced the accuracy of estimating population trend. At least 10 yr of monitoring data is necessary to estimate population trend accurately, and >20 yr if juvenile age classes were disturbed and the population is recovering. In general, there is a greater probability of making a false positive trend diagnosis than a false negative, but this depends on impact type and severity, population phase, and sampling duration. Improving detection rates to 90% does little to lower probability of a false trend diagnosis with shorter monitoring spans. Altogether, monitoring strategies for specific populations may be tailored based on the impact history, population phase, and environmental drivers. The MoSE is an important framework for analysis through simulation that can comprehensively test population assessments for accuracy and inform policy recommendations regarding the best monitoring strategies.