Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31260441›Full record

ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2019

Model-based assessment of public health impact and cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination following screening for prior exposure.

Guido España, Yutong Yao, Kathryn B Anderson, Meagan C Fitzpatrick, David L Smith, Amy C Morrison, Annelies Wilder-Smith, Thomas W Scott, T Alex Perkins

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
4.7field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 29 citations in OpenAlex.

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  8. Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Puerto Rico.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021
    Article
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  13. IgG Antibody Responses to theFrontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2020
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 6 institutions in 3 countries.

Guido EspañaDepartment of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-9915-8056
Yutong YaoDepartment of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-1135-9727
Kathryn B AndersonDepartment of Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-5725-2351
Meagan C FitzpatrickCenter for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States of America.
David L SmithInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0003-4367-3849
Amy C MorrisonDepartment of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA.
Annelies Wilder-SmithGlobal Health and Vaccinology Programme, Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Singapore.
Thomas W ScottDepartment of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, United States of America.
T Alex PerkinsDepartment of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-7518-4014
University of Notre Dame · USUniversity of California, Davis · USHeidelberg University · DEUniversity of Maryland, Baltimore · USUniversity of Minnesota · USUniversity of Washington · US

Funding

Surveillance Core (B)P01AI098670 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS · PI MORRISON, AMY CELESTE · 2014 to 2018
$7.9M
Indiana Clinical and Translational Sciences InstituteTL1TR001107 · NCATS · INDIANA UNIVERSITY INDIANAPOLIS · PI DENNE, SCOTT C., SHEKHAR, ANANTHA · 2013 to 2017
$2.0M
NCATS NIH HHS TL1 TR001107NIAID NIH HHS P01 AI098670
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The tetravalent dengue vaccine CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia) is the first licensed vaccine against dengue, but recent findings indicate an elevated risk of severe disease among vaccinees without prior dengue virus (DENV) exposure. The World Health Organization currently recommends CYD-TDV only for individuals with serological confirmation of past DENV exposure. Our objective was to evaluate the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination following serological screening. To do so, we used an agent-based model to simulate DENV transmission with and without vaccination over a 10-year timeframe. Across a range of values for the proportion of vaccinees with prior DENV exposure, we projected the proportion of symptomatic and hospitalized cases averted as a function of the sensitivity and specificity of serological screening. Scenarios about the cost-effectiveness of screening and vaccination were chosen to be representative of Brazil and the Philippines. We found that public health impact depended primarily on sensitivity in high-transmission settings and on specificity in low-transmission settings. Cost-effectiveness could be achievable from the perspective of a public payer provided that sensitivity and the value of a disability-adjusted life-year were both high, but only in high-transmission settings. Requirements for reducing relative risk and achieving cost-effectiveness from an individual perspective were more restricted, due to the fact that those who test negative pay for screening but receive no benefit. Our results predict that cost-effectiveness could be achieved only in high-transmission areas of dengue-endemic countries with a relatively high per capita GDP, such as Panamá (13,680 USD), Brazil (8,649 USD), México (8,201 USD), or Thailand (5,807 USD). In conclusion, vaccination with CYD-TDV following serological screening could have a positive impact in some high-transmission settings, provided that screening is highly specific (to minimize individual harm), at least moderately sensitive (to maximize population benefit), and sufficiently inexpensive (depending on the setting).

Indexed as

Cost-Benefit AnalysisAntibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralComputer SimulationDengueDengue VaccinesHumansMass ScreeningPublic HealthSerologic TestsTime FactorsVaccinationVaccination CoverageWorld Health OrganizationAntibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralCYD-TDV vaccineDengue Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID31260441
PMCPMC6625736
OpenAlexW2953405752

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.