Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31253787›Full record

ArticleNature communications2019

Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity.

Florian Zabel, Ruth Delzeit, Julia M Schneider, Ralf Seppelt, Wolfram Mauser, Tomáš Václavík

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 86 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
86citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

86 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  5. Reversing the great degradation of nature by reducing factors related to cropland expansion.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
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  10. Climate-driven redistribution of foxtail millet (Frontiers in plant science · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
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  15. Article
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  18. Assessment of genomic prediction capabilities of transcriptome data in a barley multi-parent RIL population.TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik · 2025
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

26 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Florian ZabelDepartment of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 80333, Munich, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2923-4412
Ruth DelzeitKiel Institute for the World Economy, 24105, Kiel, Germany. ruth.delzeit@ifw-kiel.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1668-8009
Julia M SchneiderDepartment of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 80333, Munich, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9588-3157
Ralf SeppeltDepartment of Computational Landscape Ecology, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, 04318, Leipzig, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2723-7150
Wolfram MauserDepartment of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 80333, Munich, Germany.
Tomáš VáclavíkDepartment of Computational Landscape Ecology, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, 04318, Leipzig, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1113-6320

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

With rising demand for biomass, cropland expansion and intensification represent the main strategies to boost agricultural production, but are also major drivers of biodiversity decline. We investigate the consequences of attaining equal global production gains by 2030, either by cropland expansion or intensification, and analyse their impacts on agricultural markets and biodiversity. We find that both scenarios lead to lower crop prices across the world, even in regions where production decreases. Cropland expansion mostly affects biodiversity hotspots in Central and South America, while cropland intensification threatens biodiversity especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, India and China. Our results suggest that production gains will occur at the costs of biodiversity predominantly in developing tropical regions, while Europe and North America benefit from lower world market prices without putting their own biodiversity at risk. By identifying hotspots of potential future conflicts, we demonstrate where conservation prioritization is needed to balance agricultural production with conservation goals.

Indexed as

BiodiversityAgricultureClimate ChangeConservation of Natural ResourcesModels, Economic

Identifiers

PMID31253787
PMCPMC6598988

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.