Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31243311›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2019

Neural networks versus Logistic regression for 30 days all-cause readmission prediction.

Ahmed Allam, Mate Nagy, George Thoma, Michael Krauthammer

Open access · goldAbstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
30citing papers in PubMed
5.9field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

30 citing papers in PubMed, 81 citations in OpenAlex.

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  13. [Advances in heart failure clinical research based on deep learning].Sheng wu yi xue gong cheng xue za zhi = Journal of biomedical engineering = Shengwu yixue gongchengxue zazhi · 2023
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  20. Analyzing Patient Trajectories With Artificial Intelligence.Journal of medical Internet research · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Ahmed AllamChair of Medical Informatics, Department of Quantitative Biomedicine, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Mate NagyProgram in Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
George ThomaLister Hill National Center for Biomedical Communications, National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Michael KrauthammerChair of Medical Informatics, Department of Quantitative Biomedicine, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. michael.krauthammer@uzh.ch.
Yale University · USNational Center for Biotechnology Information · USUniversity Hospital of Zurich · CH

Funding

National Biomedical Information ServicesZIHLM200888 · NLM · NATIONAL LIBRARY OF MEDICINE · PI PALTOO, DINA · 2009 to 2025
$5200.7M
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Heart failure (HF) is one of the leading causes of hospital admissions in the US. Readmission within 30 days after a HF hospitalization is both a recognized indicator for disease progression and a source of considerable financial burden to the healthcare system. Consequently, the identification of patients at risk for readmission is a key step in improving disease management and patient outcome. In this work, we used a large administrative claims dataset to (1) explore the systematic application of neural network-based models versus logistic regression for predicting 30 days all-cause readmission after discharge from a HF admission, and (2) to examine the additive value of patients' hospitalization timelines on prediction performance. Based on data from 272,778 (49% female) patients with a mean (SD) age of 73 years (14) and 343,328 HF admissions (67% of total admissions), we trained and tested our predictive readmission models following a stratified 5-fold cross-validation scheme. Among the deep learning approaches, a recurrent neural network (RNN) combined with conditional random fields (CRF) model (RNNCRF) achieved the best performance in readmission prediction with 0.642 AUC (95% CI, 0.640-0.645). Other models, such as those based on RNN, convolutional neural networks and CRF alone had lower performance, with a non-timeline based model (MLP) performing worst. A competitive model based on logistic regression with LASSO achieved a performance of 0.643 AUC (95% CI, 0.640-0.646). We conclude that data from patient timelines improve 30 day readmission prediction, that a logistic regression with LASSO has equal performance to the best neural network model and that the use of administrative data result in competitive performance compared to published approaches based on richer clinical datasets.

Indexed as

Logistic ModelsNeural Networks, ComputerAgedAlgorithmsArea Under CurveDeep LearningFalse Positive ReactionsFemaleHeart FailureHumansMachine LearningMaleMiddle AgedPatient ReadmissionPredictive Value of TestsProbability

Identifiers

PMID31243311
PMCPMC6595068
OpenAlexW2906503640

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.