Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31235598›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2019

Structured, uncertainty-driven exploration in real-world consumer choice.

Eric Schulz, Rahul Bhui, Bradley C Love, Bastien Brier, Michael T Todd, Samuel J Gershman

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
45citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

45 citing papers in PubMed.

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  7. Signatures of reinforcement learning in natural behavior.Current directions in psychological science · 2025
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  13. Predecisional information search adaptively reduces three types of uncertainty.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
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  15. Review
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  20. Understanding the first-offer conundrum: How buyer offers impact sale price and impasse risk in 26 million eBay negotiations.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Eric SchulzDepartment of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; ericschulz@fas.harvard.edu.
Rahul BhuiDepartment of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.ORCID 0000-0002-6303-8837
Bradley C LoveDepartment of Experimental Psychology, University College London, London WC1H 0AP, United Kingdom.
Bastien BrierData Science Team, Deliveroo, London EC4R 3TE, United Kingdom.
Michael T ToddData Science Team, Deliveroo, London EC4R 3TE, United Kingdom.
Samuel J GershmanDepartment of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Making good decisions requires people to appropriately explore their available options and generalize what they have learned. While computational models can explain exploratory behavior in constrained laboratory tasks, it is unclear to what extent these models generalize to real-world choice problems. We investigate the factors guiding exploratory behavior in a dataset consisting of 195,333 customers placing 1,613,967 orders from a large online food delivery service. We find important hallmarks of adaptive exploration and generalization, which we analyze using computational models. In particular, customers seem to engage in uncertainty-directed exploration and use feature-based generalization to guide their exploration. Our results provide evidence that people use sophisticated strategies to explore complex, real-world environments.

Indexed as

Decision MakingGeneralization, PsychologicalReinforcement, PsychologyChoice BehaviorComputer SimulationConsumer BehaviorExploratory BehaviorFemaleHumansLearningMaleUncertaintydecision makingexplorationgeneralizationreinforcement learning

Identifiers

PMID31235598
PMCPMC6628813

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.