ArticleEnvironmental health perspectives2019
Lyme Disease Risks in Europe under Multiple Uncertain Drivers of Change.
Article in Environmental health perspectives, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed, 71 citations in OpenAlex.
- The niche ofOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Geographical dataset of questing nymphal density for three key tick vector species of Lyme disease.Scientific data · 2026Article
- A Scoping Review of Machine Learning Applications Across Epidemiological Stages of Zoonotic Disease.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Article
- Projecting lyme disease risk in the United States: A machine learning approach integrating environmental, socioeconomic and vector factors.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Northward expansion of the thermal limit for the tick Ixodes ricinus over the past 40 years.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Exploring stakeholder perceptions and priorities related to reducing tick-related public health risks in natural environments of the United Kingdom.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Mothers and mosquitoes: climate change contributes to the spread of vector-borne pathogens posing a substantial threat to pregnant women.Seminars in immunopathology · 2025Review
- Identifying hotspots and risk factors for tick-borne encephalitis virus emergence at its range margins to guide interventions, Great Britain.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- A scoping review of the impacts of forest cover dynamics on acari-borne diseases: Beyond forest fragmentation.Heliyon · 2025Review
- Impact of climate change on the tick-host-pathogen complex: distribution patterns, disease incidence, and host infestation.Revista brasileira de parasitologia veterinaria = Brazilian journal of veterinary parasitology : Orgao Oficial do Colegio Brasileiro de Parasitologia Veterinaria · 2025Review
- Distribution and diversity of ticks determined by environmental factors in Ningxia, China.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Article
- GIS-ODE: linking dynamic population models with GIS to predict pathogen vector abundance across a country under climate change scenarios.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- The Role of Environmental Factors in Lyme Disease Transmission in the European Union: A Systematic Review.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2024Review
- IxPopDyMod: an R package to write, run, and analyze tick population and infection dynamics models.Parasites & vectors · 2024Article
- Estimating the Incidence and Economic Cost of Lyme Disease Cases in Canada in the 21st Century with Projected Climate Change.Environmental health perspectives · 2024Article
- Risk factors for tick attachment in companion animals in Great Britain: a spatiotemporal analysis covering 2014-2021.Parasites & vectors · 2024Article
- Land system governance shapes tick-related public and animal health risks.Journal of land use science · 2024Article
- Infectious Disease Sensitivity to Climate and Other Driver-Pressure Changes: Research Effort and Gaps for Lyme Disease and Cryptosporidiosis.GeoHealth · 2023Review
- Using mechanistic models to highlight research priorities for tick-borne zoonotic diseases: Improving our understanding of the ecology and maintenance of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Climate Change and Cascading Risks from Infectious Disease.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDebates over whether climate change could lead to the amplification of Lyme disease (LD) risk in the future have received much attention. Although recent large-scale disease mapping studies project an overall increase in Lyme disease risk as the climate warms, such conclusions are based on climate-driven models in which other drivers of change, such as land-use/cover and host population distribution, are less considered.
objectivesThe main objectives were to project the likely future ecological risk patterns of LD in Europe under different assumptions about future socioeconomic and climate conditions and to explore similarity and uncertainty in the projected risks.
methodsAn integrative, spatially explicit modeling study of the ecological risk patterns of LD in Europe was conducted by applying recent advances in process-based modeling of tick-borne diseases, species distribution mapping, and scenarios of land-use/cover change. We drove the model with stakeholder-driven, integrated scenarios of plausible future socioeconomic and climate change [the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSPs) combined with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)].
resultsThe model projections suggest that future temperature increases may not always amplify LD risk: Low emissions scenarios (RCP2.6) combined with a sustainability socioeconomic scenario (SSP1) resulted in reduced LD risk. The greatest increase in risk was projected under intermediate (RCP4.5) rather than high-end (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios. Climate and land-use change were projected to have different roles in shaping the future regional dynamics of risk, with climate warming being likely to cause risk expansion in northern Europe and conversion of forest to agriculture being likely to limit risk in southern Europe.
conclusionsProjected regional differences in LD risk resulted from mixed effects of temperature, land use, and host distributions, suggesting region-specific and cross-sectoral foci for LD risk management policy. The integrated model provides an improved explanatory tool for the system mechanisms of LD pathogen transmission and how pathogen transmission could respond to combined socioeconomic and climate changes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4615.
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