Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31229234›Full record

ArticleLancet (London, England)2019

Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study.

Daniel J Weiss, Tim C D Lucas, Michele Nguyen, Anita K Nandi, Donal Bisanzio, Katherine E Battle, Ewan Cameron, Katherine A Twohig, Daniel A Pfeffer, Jennifer A Rozier and 32 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet (London, England), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 259 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
259citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
62.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

259 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 492 citations in OpenAlex.

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199 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

42 authors at 10 institutions in 3 countries.

Daniel J WeissMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Tim C D LucasMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Michele NguyenMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Anita K NandiMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Donal BisanzioGlobal Health Division, Research Triangle Institute International, Washington, DC, USA; Public Health Division, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Katherine E BattleMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Ewan CameronMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Katherine A TwohigMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Daniel A PfefferMenzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University, Casuarina, NT, Australia.
Jennifer A RozierMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Harry S GibsonMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Puja C RaoInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Daniel CaseySeattle and King County Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA.
Amelia Bertozzi-VillaInstitute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, WA, USA.
Emma L CollinsMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Ursula DalrymplePublic Health England, Department of Health and Social Care, London, UK.
Naomi GrayInstruct: An Integrated Structural Biology Infrastructure for Europe, Oxford, UK.
Joseph R HarrisMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Rosalind E HowesMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Sun Yun KangMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Suzanne H KeddieMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Daniel MayMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Susan RumishaMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Michael P ThornMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Ryan BarberInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Nancy FullmanInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Chantal K HuynhInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Xie KulikoffInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Michael J KutzInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Alan D LopezInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Ali H MokdadInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Mohsen NaghaviInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Grant NguyenInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Katya Anne ShackelfordInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Theo VosInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Haidong WangInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
David L SmithInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Stephen S LimInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Christopher J L MurrayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Samir BhattImperial College London, London, UK.
Simon I HayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Peter W GethingMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. Electronic address: peter.gething@bdi.ox.ac.uk.
Infectious Diseases Data Observatory · GBInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation · USUniversity of Oxford · GBUniversity of Washington · USDepartment of Health and Social Care · GBImperial College London · GBInstitute for Disease Modeling · USMenzies School of Health Research · AUPublic Health – Seattle & King County · USRTI International · US

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSince 2000, the scale-up of malaria control interventions has substantially reduced morbidity and mortality caused by the disease globally, fuelling bold aims for disease elimination. In tandem with increased availability of geospatially resolved data, malaria control programmes increasingly use high-resolution maps to characterise spatially heterogeneous patterns of disease risk and thus efficiently target areas of high burden.

methodsWe updated and refined the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical incidence models for sub-Saharan Africa, which rely on cross-sectional survey data for parasite rate and intervention coverage. For malaria endemic countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa, we produced estimates of parasite rate and incidence by applying an ecological downscaling approach to malaria incidence data acquired via routine surveillance. Mortality estimates were derived by linking incidence to systematically derived vital registration and verbal autopsy data. Informed by high-resolution covariate surfaces, we estimated P falciparum parasite rate, clinical incidence, and mortality at national, subnational, and 5 × 5 km pixel scales with corresponding uncertainty metrics.

findingsWe present the first global, high-resolution map of P falciparum malaria mortality and the first global prevalence and incidence maps since 2010. These results are combined with those for Plasmodium vivax (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The P falciparum estimates span the period 2000-17, and illustrate the rapid decline in burden between 2005 and 2017, with incidence declining by 27·9% and mortality declining by 42·5%. Despite a growing population in endemic regions, P falciparum cases declined between 2005 and 2017, from 232·3 million (95% uncertainty interval 198·8-277·7) to 193·9 million (156·6-240·2) and deaths declined from 925 800 (596 900-1 341 100) to 618 700 (368 600-952 200). Despite the declines in burden, 90·1% of people within sub-Saharan Africa continue to reside in endemic areas, and this region accounted for 79·4% of cases and 87·6% of deaths in 2017.

interpretationHigh-resolution maps of P falciparum provide a contemporary resource for informing global policy and malaria control planning, programme implementation, and monitoring initiatives. Amid progress in reducing global malaria burden, areas where incidence trends have plateaued or increased in the past 5 years underscore the fragility of hard-won gains against malaria. Efforts towards elimination should be strengthened in such areas, and those where burden remained high throughout the study period.

fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Indexed as

Africa South of the SaharaCross-Sectional StudiesGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceMalaria, FalciparumMortalityOrganizational ObjectivesPrevalenceSpatio-Temporal Analysis

Identifiers

PMID31229234
PMCPMC6675740
OpenAlexW2951968884

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.