Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31229233›Full record

ArticleLancet (London, England)2019

Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study.

Katherine E Battle, Tim C D Lucas, Michele Nguyen, Rosalind E Howes, Anita K Nandi, Katherine A Twohig, Daniel A Pfeffer, Ewan Cameron, Puja C Rao, Daniel Casey and 29 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet (London, England), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05203744 (Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Tafenoquine After Weekly and Escalating Monthly Doses of Tafenoquine in Healthy Vietnamese Volunteers), which is not on this map. Cited by 257 papers, 16 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
257citing papers in PubMed, 16 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05203744 phase4unknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2022, after this paper: background citation

Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Tafenoquine After Weekly and Escalating Monthly Doses of Tafenoquine in Healthy Vietnamese Volunteers

TypeinterventionalSponsorNaval Medical Research CenterRan2022 to 2022Enrolled200ConditionsProphylaxisArmsTafenoquine prophylaxis
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

257 citing papers in PubMed, 16 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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197 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

39 authors.

Katherine E BattleMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Tim C D LucasMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Michele NguyenMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Rosalind E HowesMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Anita K NandiMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Katherine A TwohigMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Daniel A PfefferMenzies School of Health Research and Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT, Australia.
Ewan CameronMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Puja C RaoInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Daniel CaseySeattle & King County Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA.
Harry S GibsonMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Jennifer A RozierMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Ursula DalrymplePublic Health England, Bristol, UK.
Suzanne H KeddieMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Emma L CollinsMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Joseph R HarrisMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Carlos A GuerraMedical Care Development International, Silver Spring, MD, USA.
Michael P ThornMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Donal BisanzioGlobal Health Division, RTI International, Washington, DC, USA; Epidemiology and Public Health Division, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Nancy FullmanInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Chantal K HuynhInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Xie KulikoffInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Michael J KutzInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Alan D LopezInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Ali H MokdadInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Mohsen NaghaviInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Grant NguyenInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Katya Anne ShackelfordInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Theo VosInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Haidong WangInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Stephen S LimInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Christopher J L MurrayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Ric N PriceMenzies School of Health Research and Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT, Australia; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
J Kevin BairdEijkman-Oxford Clinical Rearch Unit, Jakarta, Indonesia; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
David L SmithInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Samir BhattImperial College London, London, UK.
Daniel J WeissMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Simon I HayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Peter W GethingMalaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. Electronic address: peter.gething@bdi.ox.ac.uk.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Wellcome Trust 200909Wellcome Trust 200909/Z/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPlasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax, national malaria programmes-particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies-require up to date assessments of P vivax endemicity and disease impact. This study presents the first global maps of P vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017.

methodsIn this spatial and temporal modelling study, we adjusted routine malariometric surveillance data for known biases and used socioeconomic indicators to generate time series of the clinical burden of P vivax. These data informed Bayesian geospatial models, which produced fine-scale predictions of P vivax clinical incidence and infection prevalence over time. Within sub-Saharan Africa, where routine surveillance for P vivax is not standard practice, we combined predicted surfaces of Plasmodium falciparum with country-specific ratios of P vivax to P falciparum. These results were combined with surveillance-based outputs outside of Africa to generate global maps.

findingsWe present the first high-resolution maps of P vivax burden. These results are combined with those for P falciparum (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The burden of P vivax malaria decreased by 41·6%, from 24·5 million cases (95% uncertainty interval 22·5-27·0) in 2000 to 14·3 million cases (13·7-15·0) in 2017. The Americas had a reduction of 56·8% (47·6-67·0) in total cases since 2000, while South-East Asia recorded declines of 50·5% (50·3-50·6) and the Western Pacific regions recorded declines of 51·3% (48·0-55·4). Europe achieved zero P vivax cases during the study period. Nonetheless, rates of decline have stalled in the past five years for many countries, with particular increases noted in regions affected by political and economic instability.

interpretationOur study highlights important spatial and temporal patterns in the clinical burden and prevalence of P vivax. Amid substantial progress worldwide, plateauing gains and areas of increased burden signal the potential for challenges that are greater than expected on the road to malaria elimination. These results support global monitoring systems and can inform the optimisation of diagnosis and treatment where P vivax has most impact.

fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust.

Indexed as

AfricaAmericasAsia, SoutheasternBayes TheoremEndemic DiseasesGlobal HealthHumansMalaria, VivaxOceaniaPopulation SurveillanceSpatio-Temporal Analysis

Identifiers

PMID31229233
PMCPMC6675736

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.