ArticleThe Lancet. Planetary health2019
Use of earth observation-derived hydrometeorological variables to model and predict rotavirus infection (MAL-ED): a multisite cohort study.
Article in The Lancet. Planetary health, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The Effect of High and Low Ambient Temperature on Infant Health: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Effects of climatic factors on rotavirus infection in Bangladesh: a time series analysis and future projections.Global health action · 2026Article
- Vulnerability to climate-driven pathogen-specific diarrheal diseases: secondary analysis from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study and Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa follow-up.Nature communications · 2026Article
- The Gut Bacterial Resistome in the First Two Years of Life: Protocol for a Longitudinal Observational Birth Cohort Study.JMIR research protocols · 2026Article
- Variability of enteric pathogen infections by season and meteorological conditions in a low-income, urban setting in Mozambique.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Climate-driven infectious disease risks: a global scoping review of epidemiological patterns, methodological gaps, and policy imperatives.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Variability of enteric pathogen infections by season and meteorological conditions in a low-income, urban setting in Mozambique.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Time-series analysis of climatic drivers of pediatric rotavirus and adenovirus infections in post-pandemic China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Climate Change and Human Health in Africa in Relation to Opportunities to Strengthen Mitigating Potential and Adaptive Capacity: Strategies to Inform an African "Brains Trust".Annals of global health · 2024Review
- Prioritizing non-communicable diseases in the post-pandemic era based on a comprehensive analysis of the GBD 2019 from 1990 to 2019.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Article
- The influence of demographic and meteorological factors on temporal patterns of rotavirus infection in Dhaka, Bangladesh.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Spatiotemporal patterns of diarrhea incidence in Ghana and the impact of meteorological and socio-demographic factors.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2022Article
- Article
- Intestinal Colonization WithFrontiers in pediatrics · 2022Article
- Effects of daily mean temperature and other meteorological variables on bacillary dysentery in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2022Article
- Childhood Rotavirus Infection Associated with Temperature and Particulate Matter 2.5 µm: A Retrospective Cohort Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Etiological, epidemiological, and clinical features of acute diarrhea in China.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Socio-demographic, not environmental, risk factors explain fine-scale spatial patterns of diarrhoeal disease in Ifanadiana, rural Madagascar.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005-2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundClimate change threatens to undermine recent progress in reducing global deaths from diarrhoeal disease in children. However, the scarcity of evidence about how individual environmental factors affect transmission of specific pathogens makes prediction of trends under different climate scenarios challenging. We aimed to model associations between daily estimates of a suite of hydrometeorological variables and rotavirus infection status ascertained through community-based surveillance.
methodsFor this analysis of multisite cohort data, rotavirus infection status was ascertained through community-based surveillance of infants in the eight-site MAL-ED cohort study, and matched by date with earth observation estimates of nine hydrometeorological variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System: daily total precipitation volume (mm), daily total surface runoff (mm), surface pressure (mbar), wind speed (m/s), relative humidity (%), soil moisture (%), solar radiation (W/m
findingsAll nine hydrometeorological variables were significantly associated with rotavirus infection after adjusting for seasonality and between-site variation over multiple consecutive or non-consecutive lags, showing complex, often non-linear associations that differed by symptom status and showed considerable mutual interaction. The final models explained 5·9% to 6·2% of the variability in rotavirus infection in the pooled data and their predictions explained between 0·0% and 14·1% of the variability at individual study sites.
interpretationThese results suggest that the effect of climate on rotavirus transmission was mediated by four independent mechanisms: waterborne dispersal, airborne dispersal, virus survival on soil and surfaces, and host factors. Earth observation data products available at a global scale and at subdaily resolution can be combined with longitudinal surveillance data to test hypotheses about routes and drivers of transmission but showed little potential for making predictions in this setting.
fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Foundation for the National Institutes of Health, National Institutes of Health, Fogarty International Center; Sherrilyn and Ken Fisher Center for Environmental Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine; and NASA's Group on Earth Observations Work Programme.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.