ArticleRoyal Society open science2019
Conditions for transient epidemics of waterborne disease in spatially explicit systems.
Article in Royal Society open science, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemicity conditions in spatial models of infectious diseases.Bollettino della Unione matematica italiana (2008) · 2026Article
- Application of remote sensing and geospatial technologies in predicting vector-borne disease outbreaks.Royal Society open science · 2025Review
- Epidemicity indices and reproduction numbers from infectious disease data in connected human populations.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Epidemicity of cholera spread and the fate of infection control measures.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Tracking the time course of reproduction number and lockdown's effect on human behaviour during SARS-CoV-2 epidemic: nonparametric estimation.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- COVID-19 epidemic control using short-term lockdowns for collective gain.Annual reviews in control · 2021Article
- Transient inconsistency between population density and fisheries yields without bycatch species extinction.Ecology and evolution · 2020Article
- Generation and application of river network analogues for use in ecology and evolution.Ecology and evolution · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Waterborne diseases are a diverse family of infections transmitted through ingestion of-or contact with-water infested with pathogens. Outbreaks of waterborne infections often show well-defined spatial signatures that are typically linked to local eco-epidemiological conditions, water-mediated pathogen transport and human mobility. In this work, we apply a spatially explicit network model describing the transmission cycle of waterborne pathogens to determine invasion conditions in metacommunities endowed with a realistic spatial structure. Specifically, we aim to define conditions under which pathogens can temporarily colonize a set of human communities, thus triggering a transient epidemic outbreak. To that end, we apply generalized reactivity analysis, a recently developed methodological framework for the study of transient dynamics in ecological systems subject to external perturbations. The study of pathogen invasion is complemented by the detection of the spatial signatures associated with the perturbations to a disease-free system that are expected to be amplified the most over different time scales. Understanding the drivers of waterborne disease dynamics over time scales that are relevant to epidemic and/or endemic transmission is a crucial, cross-disciplinary challenge, as large portions of the developing world still struggle to cope with the burden of these infections.
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Registered trials
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