ArticlePloS one2019
Potential distribution of dominant malaria vector species in tropical region under climate change scenarios.
Article in PloS one, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 44 citations in OpenAlex.
- Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control.Parasites & vectors · 2023Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Future climate scenarios reshape the suitability of major malaria vector taxa in South America.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Article
- Spatio-temporal modelling and prediction of Anopheles mosquito abundance in Tanga and Unguja, Tanzania: climatic drivers and insights for malaria early warning and vector control strategies.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Does climate change influence the spread of malaria in Benin? Insights from ecological niche modeling for surveillance efforts.International health · 2026Article
- Epidemiology of selected communicable diseases in Rwanda: a comprehensive analysis of the prevalence of major infectious diseases in Rwanda.International journal of emergency medicine · 2025Review
- Impact of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa: A scoping review of literature.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Review
- Human Blood Index ofJournal of tropical medicine · 2025Review
- Range dynamics ofEcology and evolution · 2024Article
- Imported malaria into Australia: surveillance insights and opportunities.Journal of travel medicine · 2024Article
- Long-lasting household damage from Cyclone Idai increases malaria risk in rural western Mozambique.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Main Malaria Vectors in an Endemic Area, Southeastern Iran.Iranian journal of public health · 2023Article
- The Geographical Coexist of the Migratory Birds, Ticks, and Nairobi Sheep Disease Virus May Potentially Contribute to the Passive Spreading of Nairobi Sheep Disease.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2023Article
- High Prevalence ofJournal of veterinary research · 2022Article
- A reverse vaccinology approach on transmembrane carbonic anhydrases from Plasmodium species as vaccine candidates for malaria prevention.Malaria journal · 2022Article
- A hot topic at the environment-health nexus: investigating the impact of climate change on infectious diseases.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- Spatiotemporal Trends and Distributions of Malaria Incidence in the Northwest Ethiopia.Journal of tropical medicine · 2022Article
- The Complex Epidemiological Relationship between Flooding Events and Human Outbreaks of Mosquito-Borne Diseases: A Scoping Review.Environmental health perspectives · 2021Article
- Zoonotic Blood-Borne Pathogens in Non-Human Primates in the Neotropical Region: A Systematic Review.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Review
- Evaluating the Effects of Climate and Environmental Factors on Under-5 Children Malaria Spatial Distribution Using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs).Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Risk assessment regarding the distribution of malaria vectors and environmental variables underpinning their distribution under changing climates is crucial towards malaria control and eradication. On this basis, we used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Model to estimate the potential future distribution of major transmitters of malaria in Nigeria-Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings: Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and Anopheles arabiensis under low and high emissions scenarios. In the model, we used mosquito occurrence data sampled from 1900 to 2010 alongside land use and terrain variables, and bioclimatic variables for baseline climate 1960-1990 and future climates of 2050s (2041-2060) and 2070s (2061-2080) that follow RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Anopheles gambiae species are projected to experience large shift in potential range and population with increased distribution density, higher under high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and 2070s than low emission scenario (RCP2.6) and 2050s. Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and Anopheles arabiensis are projected to have highest invasion with 47-70% and 10-14% percentage increase, respectively in Sahel and Sudan savannas within northern states in 2041-2080 under RCP8.5. Highest prevalence is predicted for Humid forest and Derived savanna in southern and North Central states in 2041-2080; 91-96% and 97-99% for Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and 67-71% and 72-75% for Anopheles arabiensis under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The higher magnitude of change in species prevalence predicted for the later part of the 21st century under high emission scenario, driven mainly by increasing and fluctuating temperature, alongside longer seasonal tropical rainfall accompanied by drier phases and inherent influence of rapid land use change, may lead to more significant increase in malaria burden when compared with other periods and scenarios during the century; especially in Humid forest, Derived savanna, Sahel and Sudan savannas.
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