ArticleDemography2019
Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States.
Article in Demography, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Using Relative Distribution Methods to Study Economic Polarization Across Categories and ContextsSociological methodology · 2025Article
- Multiple dimensions of uncertainty in fertility goals: recent trends and patterns in the United States.Genus · 2025Article
- Perceptions of the Future and Pregnancy Avoidance in the U.S.Population research and policy review · 2025Article
- Fertility in a Pandemic: Evidence from California.Population and development review · 2024Article
- Family Life Courses, Uncertain Futures, and the Changing World of Work: State-of-the-Art and Prospects.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2024Article
- Economic Cycles and Entry into Parenthood: Is the Association Changing and Does it Affect Macro-Level Trends? Micro-Level Hazard and Simulation Models of Belgian Fertility Trends, 1960-2010.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2024Article
- Article
- Casino-based cash transfers and fertility among the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians in North Carolina: A time-series analysis.Economics and human biology · 2023Article
- State-specific fertility rate changes across the USA following the first two waves of COVID-19.Human reproduction (Oxford, England) · 2023Article
- Industrial Robots and Regional Fertility in European Countries.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2023Article
- Evolving Fertility Goals and Behaviors in Current U.S. Childbearing Cohorts.Population and development review · 2023Article
- Impact of the 2007-2008 United States Economic Crisis on Pet Ownership.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2022Article
- Economic Precariousness and the Transition to Parenthood: A Dynamic and Multidimensional Approach.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2022Article
- Determinants of Disparities in Early COVID-19 Job Losses.Demography · 2022Article
- More comprehensive sex education reduced teen births: Quasi-experimental evidence.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2021Article
- TheEuropean journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2021Article
- Career optimism of culturally and linguistically diverse hotel workers in the pandemic age.International journal of hospitality management · 2021Article
- How aging of the global population is changing oncology.Ecancermedicalscience · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
Abstract
In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists have anticipated that economic recovery in the United States, characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur a reversal of declining fertility trends. However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes in U.S. labor markets have prolonged the financial uncertainty that leads women and couples to delay or forgo childbearing. Combining statistical and survey data with restricted-use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFRs) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the 2006-2014 period. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition-specifically, the loss of manufacturing and other goods-producing businesses-have a larger effect on TFRs than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Because structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time-in contrast to unemployment rates, which fluctuate with economic cycles-further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.