ArticleBMC infectious diseases2019
The complex transmission seasonality of hand, foot, and mouth disease and its driving factors.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemiological analysis of infectious disease in border port areas of Heilongjiang Province, 2014-2023.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Study on the resurgence of pertussis based on a stage-structured dynamic model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Analyzing the spatiotemporal effects of meteorological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease using mixed geographically and temporally weighted autoregressive models.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- In Vitro Discovery of a Therapeutic Lead for HFMD From a Library Screen of Rocaglates/Aglains.Journal of medical virology · 2025Article
- Application of exponential smoothing method and SARIMA model in predicting the number of admissions in a third-class hospital in Zhejiang Province.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Exploring the influence of COVID-19 on the spread of hand, foot, and mouth disease with an automatic machine learning prediction model.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2023Article
- Epidemiological and etiological characteristics of mild hand, foot and mouth disease in children under 7 years old, Nanjing, China, 2010-2019.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2022Article
- Transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease in 97 counties of China.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- A five-year retrospective study on the epidemiology of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sabah, Malaysia.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Spatial-temporal mapping and risk factors for hand foot and mouth disease in northwestern inland China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Early warning of hand, foot, and mouth disease transmission: A modeling study in mainland, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Analysis and prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in China using Random Forest and XGBoost.PloS one · 2021Article
- Integration of a Kalman filter in the geographically weighted regression for modeling the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Meteorological Factors and the Transmissibility of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Xiamen City, China.Frontiers in medicine · 2020Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe transmission rate seasonality is an important index for transmission dynamics in many childhood infections, and has been widely studied in industrialized countries. However, it has been neglected in the study of pathogens in China.
methodsTo understand the transmission dynamics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), we examined the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD in three provinces, Henan, Anhui and Chongqing, in China, using a dynamical stochastic SIR model. We investigated potential driving factors, including school terms, the Chinese Spring Festival period, meteorological factors and population flux for their effects on the HFMD transmission seasonality using multiple regression models.
resultsThe transmission rate of HFMD had complex seasonality with one large major peak in March and one small peak in autumn. School terms, the Chinese Spring Festival period, population flux and meteorological factors had combined effects on the HFMD transmission seasonality in mainland China. The school terms reflects the seasonal contact rate in Children, while the population flux and the Chinese Spring Festival period reflect the seasonal contact rate in population. They drove HFMD transmission rate seasonality in different time periods of the year in China. Contact rate seasonality in population dominated effects on HFMD transmission in February and March. The dramatic increase in transmission rate during February coincides with the Chinese Spring Festival period and high population flux in this month. The contact rate seasonality in children dominated effects on the transmission in the other months of the year in Chongqing. Meteorological factors can not solely explain the seasonality in HFMD transmission in mainland China; however, they may have combined effects with school terms and the highway passenger traffic on the transmission rate in Anhui during the fall semester.
conclusionThe transmission rate of HFMD in three provinces in China had complex seasonality. The Chinese Spring Festival period, population flux and (or) school terms explained the majority of the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD, and they drove HFMD transmission rate seasonality in different time periods of the year. The Chinese Spring Festival period dominantly caused the dramatic increase of the HFMD transmission rate during February.
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