ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2019
A Dynamical and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Regression Modelling of Malaria Incidence in Limpopo Province, South Africa.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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16 citing papers in PubMed, 30 citations in OpenAlex.
- Influence of climatic and land use factors on post-monsoon distribution of Aedes mosquito vectors in Udupi taluk.Scientific reports · 2025Observational
- Forecasting Dengue: Evaluating the Role of Hydroclimate Information in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Modeling the spatial patterns of antenatal care utilization in Nigeria with inference based on Pólya-Gamma mixtures.Journal of applied statistics · 2024Article
- Stratification and Adaptation of Malaria Control Interventions in Chad.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Towards malaria elimination: analysis of travel history and case forecasting using the SARIMA model in Limpopo Province.Parasitology research · 2023Article
- Geo-epidemiology of malaria incidence in the Vhembe District to guide targeted elimination strategies, South-Africa, 2015-2018: a local resurgence.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Generalized Linear Models to Forecast Malaria Incidence in Three Endemic Regions of Senegal.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Bayesian spatio-temporal distributed lag modeling for delayed climatic effects on sparse malaria incidence data.BMC medical research methodology · 2021Article
- Comparison of Predictive Models and Impact Assessment of Lockdown for COVID-19 over the United States.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2021Article
- Evolution of Malaria Incidence in Five Health Districts, in the Context of the Scaling Up of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention, 2016 to 2018, in Mali.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Article
- Impact of COVID-19 prevalence and mode of transmission on mortality cases over WHO regions.Health information science and systems · 2020Article
- Modelling Malaria Incidence in the Limpopo Province, South Africa: Comparison of Classical and Bayesian Methods of Estimation.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Geo-Epidemiology of Malaria at the Health Area Level, Dire Health District, Mali, 2013-2017.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Modeling an association between malaria cases and climate variables for Keonjhar district of Odisha, India: a Bayesian approach.Journal of parasitic diseases : official organ of the Indian Society for Parasitology · 2020Article
- Epidemic Changes and Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Japanese Encephalitis in Shaanxi Province, China, 2005-2018.Frontiers in public health · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Recent studies have considered the connections between malaria incidence and climate variables using mathematical and statistical models. Some of the statistical models focused on time series approach based on Box-Jenkins methodology or on dynamic model. The latter approach allows for covariates different from its original lagged values, while the Box-Jenkins does not. In real situations, malaria incidence counts may turn up with many zero terms in the time series. Fitting time series model based on the Box-Jenkins approach and ARIMA may be spurious. In this study, a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was formulated for fitting malaria incidence in Mopani and Vhembe-two of the epidemic district municipalities in Limpopo, South Africa. In particular, a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was formulated for daily malaria counts as a function of some climate variables, with the aim of identifying the model that best predicts reported malaria cases. Results from this study show that daily rainfall amount and the average temperature at various lags have a significant influence on malaria incidence in the study areas. The significance of zero inflation on the malaria count was examined using the Vuong test and the result shows that zero-inflated negative binomial regression model fits the data better. A dynamical climate-based model was further used to investigate the population dynamics of mosquitoes over the two regions. Findings highlight the significant roles of
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.