ArticlePloS one2019
Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the 2016-2017 avian influenza epidemic in the Republic of Korea.
Article in PloS one, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of mechanistic models used to study avian influenza virus transmission and control.Veterinary research · 2023Pooled it
- From Clustered to Sporadic: Structural Shifts in the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of HPAI Following the 2017 Policy Reinforcement in South Korea (2003-2025).Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Article
- Modeling and assessing Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) spread, epidemiological control measures, and cost.PloS one · 2026Article
- From isolation to revival: trade recovery amid global health crises.Globalization and health · 2024Article
- Risk Prediction of Three Different Subtypes of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Poultry Farms: Based on Spatial Characteristics of Infected Premises in South Korea.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2022Article
- Analyzing Spatial Dependency of the 2016-2017 Korean HPAI Outbreak to Determine the Effective Culling Radius.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Elucidating the Local Transmission Dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N6 in the Republic of Korea by Integrating Phylogenetic Information.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Numbers of the Subtypes H5N1, H5N8, and H5N6 During the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Epidemic Spread Between Farms.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2021Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
During the winter of 2016-2017, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) led to high mortality in poultry and put a serious burden on the poultry industry of the Republic of Korea. Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the HPAI epidemic is still a challenging issue. Here we develop a spatial-temporal compartmental model that incorporates the culling rate as a function of the reported farms and farm density in each town. The epidemiological and geographical data of two species, chickens and ducks, from the farms in the sixteen towns in Eumseong-gun and Jincheon-gun are used to find the best-fitted parameters of the metapopulation model. The best culling radius to maximize the final size of the susceptible farms and minimize the total number of culled farms is calculated from the model. The local reproductive number using the next generation method is calculated as an indicator of virus transmission in a given area. Simulation results indicate that this parameter is strongly influenced not only by epidemiological factors such as transmissibility and/or susceptibility of poultry species but also by geographical and demographical factors such as the distribution of poultry farms (or density) and connectivity (or distance) between farms. Based on this result, we suggest the best culling radius with respect to the local reproductive number in a targeted area.
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