ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2019
Estimating undetected Ebola spillovers.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Global land rush concentrates potential zoonotic spillover risk in the tropics.Communications sustainability · 2026Article
- Zoon0PredV: Potential Virus Species Crossover Prediction Using Convolutional Neural Networks and Viral Protein Sequence Patterns.Bioinformatics and biology insights · 2026Article
- Early epidemiological characteristics explain the chance of population-level virus persistence following spillover events.PLoS biology · 2025Article
- Biodiversity science and biosurveillance are fellow travelers.Bioscience · 2025Article
- Article
- Molecular epidemiology of recurrent zoonotic transmission of mpox virus in West Africa.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Serological evidence of zoonotic filovirus exposure among bushmeat hunters in Guinea.Nature communications · 2024Article
- The World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News: A retrospective database.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Ecology, evolution and spillover of coronaviruses from bats.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2022Review
- Transmission models indicate Ebola virus persistence in non-human primate populations is unlikely.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Wildlife in Cameroon harbor diverse coronaviruses, including many closely related to human coronavirus 229E.Virus evolution · 2022Article
- Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife-human interface.Epidemics · 2021Review
- Zoonotic risk factors associated with seroprevalence of Ebola virus GP antibodies in the absence of diagnosed Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Monitoring the impact of Movement Control Order (MCO) in flattening the cummulative daily cases curve of Covid-19 in Malaysia: A generalized logistic growth modeling approach.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Zoonotic spillover: Understanding basic aspects for better prevention.Genetics and molecular biology · 2021Article
- Setting a baseline for global urban virome surveillance in sewage.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Simulating within host human immunodeficiency virus 1 genome evolution in the persistent reservoir.Virus evolution · 2020Article
- Bat-borne viruses in Africa: a critical review.Journal of zoology (London, England : 1987) · 2020Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The preparedness of health systems to detect, treat, and prevent onward transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) is central to mitigating future outbreaks. Early detection of outbreaks is critical to timely response, but estimating detection rates is difficult because unreported spillover events and outbreaks do not generate data. Using three independent datasets available on the distributions of secondary infections during EVD outbreaks across West Africa, in a single district (Western Area) of Sierra Leone, and in the city of Conakry, Guinea, we simulated realistic outbreak size distributions and compared them to reported outbreak sizes. These three empirical distributions lead to estimates for the proportion of detected spillover events and small outbreaks of 26% (range 8-40%, based on the full outbreak data), 48% (range 39-62%, based on the Sierra Leone data), and 17% (range 11-24%, based on the Guinea data). We conclude that at least half of all spillover events have failed to be reported since EVD was first recognized. We also estimate the probability of detecting outbreaks of different sizes, which is likely less than 10% for single-case spillover events. Comparing models of the observation process also suggests the probability of detecting an outbreak is not simply the cumulative probability of independently detecting any one individual. Rather, we find that any individual's probability of detection is highly dependent upon the size of the cluster of cases. These findings highlight the importance of primary health care and local case management to detect and contain undetected early stage outbreaks at source.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.