ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2019
Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 86 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
86 citing papers in PubMed, 568 citations in OpenAlex.
- Projecting Impacts of Marine Heatwaves and Their Effects on Long-Term Changes in Marine Ecosystems Over the 21st Century.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Sensitivity of Marine Pelagic Fish Catch Potential to Changes in Primary Production in a Global Fisheries Model.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Article
- Long-term warming reduces fish biomass, but heatwaves shift it.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
- Historical depletion and future drought-driven risks to Gulf of Mexico fisheries production.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Understanding animal temperature sensation: from molecular thermosensors to physiological impacts.Science China. Life sciences · 2026Review
- AquaX: An enhanced and revised AquaMaps framework to model marine species distributions and biodiversity.PloS one · 2026Article
- Phytoplankton With Flexible Pigment Content Disadvantaged by Projected Future Decrease in Variability of the Ocean Light Spectrum.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Identifying and addressing the anthropogenic drivers of global change in the North Sea: a systematic map.Environmental evidence · 2025Article
- Machine learning applied to global scale species distribution models.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- The combined impact of fisheries and climate change on future carbon sequestration by oceanic macrofauna.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics in the energy seascapes of a marine top predator.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Climate change drives shifts in straddling fish stocks in the world's ocean.Science advances · 2025Article
- Functional diversity shapes the stability of reef fish biomass under global change.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2025Article
- Article
- Multiple Models of European Marine Fish Stocks: Regional Winners and Losers in a Future Climate.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Article
- Emergent Relationships Between the Functional Diversity of Marine Planktonic Copepods and Ecosystem Functioning in the Global Ocean.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Climate Change Influences via Species Distribution Shifts and Century-Scale Warming in an End-To-End California Current Ecosystem Model.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate models.Communications earth & environment · 2025Article
26 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
35 authors at 19 institutions in 12 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.