Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31185496›Full record

ArticleAnnals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology2019

Timing of HPV16-E6 antibody seroconversion before OPSCC: findings from the HPVC3 consortium.

A R Kreimer, A Ferreiro-Iglesias, M Nygard, N Bender, L Schroeder, A Hildesheim, H A Robbins, M Pawlita, H Langseth, N F Schlecht and 30 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
58citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

58 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Guideline
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Redefining oropharyngeal cancer in the HPV era: integrating precision medicine and immunotherapeutic frontiers.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026
    Review
  7. Article
  8. Diagnostic Performance of the PrevoCheck for the Detection of Human Papillomavirus 16-Driven Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma.Journal of oral pathology & medicine : official publication of the International Association of Oral Pathologists and the American Academy of Oral Pathology · 2026
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Observational
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Direct Comparison of Alternative Blood-Based Approaches for Early Detection and Diagnosis of HPV-Associated Head and Neck Cancers.Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research · 2025
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

40 authors.

A R KreimerInfections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA. Electronic address: kreimera@mail.nih.gov.
A Ferreiro-IglesiasGenetic Epidemiology Group (GEP), International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France.
M NygardDepartment of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway.
N BenderInfections and Cancer Epidemiology, Research Program Infection, Inflammation and Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
L SchroederInfections and Cancer Epidemiology, Research Program Infection, Inflammation and Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
A HildesheimInfections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA.
H A RobbinsGenetic Epidemiology Group (GEP), International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France.
M PawlitaInfections and Cancer Epidemiology, Research Program Infection, Inflammation and Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
H LangsethDepartment of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway.
N F SchlechtDepartment of Cancer Prevention and Control, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, Buffalo; Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx.
L F TinkerPublic Health Sciences, Cancer Prevention Program, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, USA.
I AgalliuDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx.
S W SmollerDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx.
E Ness-JensenHUNT Research Center, Department of Public Health and Nursing, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway.
K HveemHUNT Research Center, Department of Public Health and Nursing, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway.
G D'SouzaJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, USA.
K VisvanathanJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, USA.
B MayJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, USA.
G UrsinCancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Majorstuen, Oslo; Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
E WeiderpassDepartment of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway; Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden; Genetic Epidemiology Group, Folkhälsan Research Center, and Faculty of Medicine, Helsinki University, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.
G G GilesCancer Epidemiology and Intelligence Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne.
R L MilneCancer Epidemiology and Intelligence Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville; Precision Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Clayton, Australia.
Q CaiDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, USA.
W J BlotDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, USA.
W ZhengDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, USA.
S J WeinsteinInfections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA.
D AlbanesInfections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA.
N BrennerInfections and Cancer Epidemiology, Research Program Infection, Inflammation and Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
J Hoffman-BoltonJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, USA.
R KaaksDivision of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
A BarricarteNavarra Public Health Institute, Pamplona; Navarra Institute for Health Research (IdiSNA), Pamplona; CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain.
A TjønnelandDanish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark.
C SacerdoteUnit of Cancer Epidemiology, Città della Salute e della Scienza University-Hospital and Center for Cancer Prevention (CPO), Turin, Italy.
A TrichopoulouHellenic Health Foundation, Athens, Greece.
R C H VermeulenInstitute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University; Julius Centre for Public Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht University Medical Centre, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
W-Y HuangInfections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA.
N D FreedmanInfections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA.
P BrennanGenetic Epidemiology Group (GEP), International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France.
T WaterboerInfections and Cancer Epidemiology, Research Program Infection, Inflammation and Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
M JohanssonGenetic Epidemiology Group (GEP), International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France. Electronic address: johanssonm@iarc.fr.

Funding

Two-Spirit Films in Indigenous Cancer HealthP30CA016056 · NCI · ROSWELL PARK CANCER INSTITUTE CORP · PI MARK G FRATTINI · 1985 to 2026
$116.6M
WORD PROCESSORP30CA013330 · NCI · YESHIVA UNIVERSITY · PI THOMAS E ROHAN · 1985 to 2026
$111.2M
Biomarkers of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and risk of two increasing cancersU01CA195603 · NCI · INTERNATIONAL AGENCY FOR RES ON CANCER · PI BRENNAN, PAUL JOSEPH · 2015 to 2018
$1.8M
Cancer Research UK 14136Cancer Research UK C570/A16491Cancer Research UK C8221/A19170Medical Research Council 1000143Medical Research Council G0401527Medical Research Council G1000143Medical Research Council MR/M012190/1Medical Research Council MR/N003284/1NCI NIH HHS P30 CA013330NCI NIH HHS P30 CA016056NCI NIH HHS U01 CA195603NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201600001CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201600002CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201600003CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201600004CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201600018CWorld Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundHuman papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16)-E6 antibodies are detectable in peripheral blood before diagnosis in the majority of HPV16-driven oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), but the timing of seroconversion is unknown. PATIENTS AND

methodsWe formed the HPV Cancer Cohort Consortium which comprises nine population cohorts from Europe, North America and Australia. In total, 743 incident OPSCC cases and 5814 controls provided at least one pre-diagnostic blood sample, including 111 cases with multiple samples. Median time between first blood collection and OPSCC diagnosis was 11.4 years (IQR = 6-11 years, range = 0-40 years). Antibodies against HPV16-E6 were measured by multiplex serology (GST fusion protein based Luminex assay).

resultsHPV16-E6 seropositivity was present in 0.4% of controls (22/5814; 95% CI 0.2% to 0.6%) and 26.2% (195/743; 95% CI 23.1% to 29.6%) of OPSCC cases. HPV16-E6 seropositivity increased the odds of OPSCC 98.2-fold (95% CI 62.1-155.4) in whites and 17.2-fold (95% CI 1.7-170.5) in blacks. Seropositivity in cases was more frequent in recent calendar periods, ranging from 21.9% pre-1996 to 68.4% in 2005 onwards, in those with blood collection near diagnosis (lead time <5 years). HPV16-E6 seropositivity increased with lead time: 0.0%, 13.5%, 23.7%, and 38.9% with lead times of >30 years (N = 24), 20-30 years (N = 148), 10-20 years (N = 228), and <10 years (N = 301 cases) (p-trend < 0.001). Of the 47 HPV16-E6 seropositive cases with serially-collected blood samples, 17 cases seroconverted during follow-up, with timing ranging from 6 to 28 years before diagnosis. For the remaining 30 cases, robust seropositivity was observed up to 25 years before diagnosis.

conclusionsThe immune response to HPV16-driven tumorigenesis is most often detectable several decades before OPSCC diagnosis. HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals face increased risk of OPSCC over several decades.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAntibodies, ViralCarcinogenesisCase-Control StudiesFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHuman papillomavirus 16HumansMaleMiddle AgedOncogene Proteins, ViralOropharyngeal NeoplasmsPapillomavirus InfectionsProspective StudiesRepressor ProteinsAntibodies, ViralE6 protein, Human papillomavirus type 16Oncogene Proteins, ViralRepressor ProteinsHPVC3OPCSCCoropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Identifiers

PMID31185496
PMCPMC6683856

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