← GLP-1 receptor agonists × cardiovascular events

TrialThe New England journal of medicine2019

Oral Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.

Mansoor Husain et al.PubMed ↗Publisher ↗

The primary results report of NCT02692716. Its numbers are set against the trial’s posted results below.

What the trial testedrandomised · 3,183 people · 2019

Randomised comparison

Reduced cardiovascular events

−51%−73% to −8%

1 in 100 instead of 2

Bigger than 9 in 10 for cardiovascular events

As reported

HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.27–0.92

Randomised comparison

Reduced deaths

Doesn’t vote: same as the registry's posted result, which counts instead

−49%−69% to −16%

1 in 100 instead of 3

Bigger than 9 in 10 for all-cause mortality

As reported

HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.31–0.84 · the paper's word: All-cause mortality

Range includes no effect

No clear effect on cardiovascular events

+18%−27% to +90%

About 2 in 100 either way

Bigger than 3 in 10 for cardiovascular events

As reported

HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.73–1.90

Range includes no effect

No clear effect on cardiovascular events

−26%−65% to +57%

About 1 in 100 either way

Bigger than 6 in 10 for cardiovascular events

As reported

HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.35–1.57

+1 more in the walkthrough ↓

Against the trial’s posted results

  • Same as the trial’s posted resultThis paper HR 1.18 (0.73–1.90)Posted HR 1.18 (0.73–1.90), p = 0.5044Time From Randomisation to First Occurrence of Each of the Individual Components in the Expanded Composite Cardiovascular Endpoint
  • Same as the trial’s posted resultThis paper HR 0.51 (0.31–0.84)Posted HR 0.51 (0.31–0.84), p = 0.0078Time From Randomisation to All-cause Death
  • Same as the trial’s posted resultThis paper HR 0.74 (0.35–1.57)Posted HR 0.74 (0.35–1.57), p = 0.4350Time From Randomisation to First Occurrence of Each of the Individual Components in the Expanded Composite Cardiovascular Endpoint
  • Same as the trial’s posted resultThis paper HR 0.79 (0.57–1.11)Posted, primary outcome HR 0.79 (0.57–1.11), p < 0.0001Time From Randomisation to First Occurrence of a Major Adverse Cardiovascular Event (MACE) Composite Endpoint Consisting of: Cardiovascular Death, Non-fatal Myocardial Infarction or Non-fatal Stroke

Five numbers in the abstract

the abstract, start to end

… in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], …

… in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.92); nonfatal myocardial infarction, 37 of 1591 patients (2.3%) and 31 of 1592 (1.9%), respectively (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.90); and nonfatal stroke, 12 of 1591 patients (0.8%) and 16 of 1592 (1.0%), respectively (hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.35 to 1.57).

… in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.84).

← favours treatmentfavours comparator →
could be chance
Cardiovascular events
HR 0.790.57–1.11
Cardiovascular events
HR 0.490.27–0.92
Cardiovascular events
HR 1.180.73–1.90
Cardiovascular events
HR 0.740.35–1.57
All-cause mortality
HR 0.510.31–0.84
GLP-1 receptor agonistsCardiovascular eventsAll-cause mortality

GLP-1 receptor agonists × cardiovascular eventshelps?mixed

unlikelylikely
0.500.78 without it
← favours treatmentfavours comparator →
this papermore certainless certain
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877 papers cite itlatest 60 shown

2019
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The trial

NCT02692716phase 33,183 enrolled2017this paper is its primary report
Full record →Abstract, authors, funding and every citing paper · PMID 31185157