ArticleScience advances2019
Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities.
Article in Science advances, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Valuing wildfire smoke-related mortality benefits from climate mitigation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Analysis of the urban heat island in Łódź, Poland.International journal of occupational medicine and environmental health · 2024Article
- More extremely hot days, more heat exposure and fewer cooling options for people of color in Connecticut, U.S.npj urban sustainability · 2024Article
- Annals of Education: Teaching Climate Change and Global Public Health.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Future Temperature-Related Deaths in the U.S.: The Impact of Climate Change, Demographics, and Adaptation.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat-related mortality varies from country to country.International journal of climatology : a journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · 2023Article
- Fulfilling global climate pledges can lead to major increase in forest land on Tibetan Plateau.iScience · 2023Article
- Projections of heatwave-attributable mortality under climate change and future population scenarios in China.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Article
- The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally.Science advances · 2022Article
- Estimating heat-related mortality in near real time for national heatwave plans.Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site] · 2022Article
- Making the climate crisis personal through a focus on human health.Climatic change · 2021Article
- Late lactation in small mammals is a critically sensitive window of vulnerability to elevated ambient temperature.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
- Estimating the Health-Related Costs of 10 Climate-Sensitive U.S. Events During 2012.GeoHealth · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
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Abstract
Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.
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