ArticleEpidemics2019
Temperature impacts on dengue emergence in the United States: Investigating the role of seasonality and climate change.
Article in Epidemics, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The impact of climate change on neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2021Pooled it
- Dengue transmission risk in California under climate and land-use change: a semi-mechanistic modelling study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Modeling the effects of vector species composition and temperature on the risk of dengue virus.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Ten-year trend and geographic analysis of the incidence of dengue in Taiwan.IJID regions · 2025Article
- From Bird Viremia to Bird Surveillance: Identifiability in a Multiscale Vector-Borne Model of Usutu Virus Infection.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Evaluating chikungunya outbreak size and emergency vaccination strategies in Miami: an exploratory modeling study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Modeling the Effects of Temperature and Resource Quality on the Outcome of Competition Between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and the Resulting Risk of Vector-Borne Disease.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Longitudinal surveillance of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in urban coastal Kenya: population dynamics, blood feeding frequency and dengue virus infection rates.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Understanding local determinants of dengue: a geographically weighted panel regression approach in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.Tropical medicine and health · 2025Article
- Perceptions of coastal dwellers about the effects of extreme temperature and saline water on human health: evidence from Bangladesh.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- The influence of the larval microbiome on susceptibility to Zika virus is mosquito genotype-dependent.PLoS pathogens · 2023Article
- Role of air pollutants in dengue fever incidence: evidence from two southern cities in Taiwan.Pathogens and global health · 2023Article
- Convergent trends and spatiotemporal patterns of Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico and Central America.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- The relative importance of key meteorological factors affecting numbers of mosquito vectors of dengue fever.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Beyond the Unknown: A Broad Framing for Preparedness for Emerging Infectious Threats.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2022Article
- How do i bite thee? let me count the ways: Exploring the implications of individual biting habits of Aedes aegypti for dengue transmission.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Effects of Guangzhou seasonal climate change on the development of Aedes albopictus and its susceptibility to DENV-2.PloS one · 2022Article
- Game-Theoretical Model of the Voluntary Use of Insect Repellents to Prevent Zika Fever.Dynamic games and applications · 2022Article
- A Temperature Conditioned Markov Chain Model for Predicting the Dynamics of Mosquito Vectors of Disease.Insects · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Tropical mosquito-borne viruses have been expanding into more temperate regions in recent decades. This is partly due to the coupled effects of temperature on mosquito life history traits and viral infection dynamics and warming surface temperatures, resulting in more suitable conditions for vectors and virus transmission. In this study, we use a deterministic ordinary differential equations model to investigate how seasonal and diurnal temperature fluctuations affect the potential for dengue transmission in six U.S. cities. We specifically consider temperature-dependent mosquito larval development, adult mosquito mortality, and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. We show that the ability of introductions to lead to outbreaks depends upon the relationship between a city's temperature profile and the time of year at which the initial case is introduced. We also investigate how the potential for outbreaks changes with predicted future increases in mean temperatures due to climate change. We find that climate change will likely lead to increases in suitability for dengue transmission and will increase the periods of the year in which introductions may lead to outbreaks, particularly in cities that typically have mild winters and warm summers, such as New Orleans, Louisiana, and El Paso, Texas. We discuss our results in the context of temperature heterogeneity within and across cities and how these differences may impact the potential for dengue emergence given present day and predicted future temperatures.
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