ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2020
Comparative Validation of Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models and Projections for Future Risk Stratification.
Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 66 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
66 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 105 citations in OpenAlex.
- Development and performance of female breast cancer incidence risk prediction models: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Annals of medicine · 2025Pooled it
- A systematic review of prediction models for risk of breast cancer.BMC cancer · 2025Pooled it
- Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Lifestyle and Reproductive Factors Associated with Risk of Breast Cancer in Asian Women.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2024Pooled it
- Understanding the contribution of lifestyle in breast cancer risk prediction: a systematic review of models applicable to Europe.BMC cancer · 2023Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Genetic variants of the human host influencing the coronavirus-associated phenotypes (SARS, MERS and COVID-19): rapid systematic review and field synopsis.Human genomics · 2020Pooled it
- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer survivorship: a scoping review.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2026Article
- Factors Influencing Physician Adherence to Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment Model Recommendations: A Best-Worst Scaling.American journal of cardiovascular drugs : drugs, devices, and other interventions · 2026Article
- Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast Cancer Among African American Women With High Risk.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Article
- Pathogenic Variants, Family History, and Cumulative Risk of Breast Cancer in US Women.JAMA oncology · 2025Article
- Article
- Evaluating mammographic density's contribution to improve a breast cancer risk model with questionnaire-based and polygenic factors.NPJ breast cancer · 2025Article
- Investigating the added value of incorporatingmammographic density to an integrated breastcancer risk model with questionnaire-based riskfactors and polygenic risk score.Research square · 2024Article
- Development of a Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model Integrating Monogenic, Polygenic, and Epidemiologic Risk.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2024Article
- Wasm-iCARE: a portable and privacy-preserving web module to build, validate, and apply absolute risk models.JAMIA open · 2024Article
- A constrained maximum likelihood approach to developing well-calibrated models for predicting binary outcomes.Lifetime data analysis · 2024Article
- Mediation analysis using incomplete information from publicly available data sources.Statistics in medicine · 2024Article
- Assessing the Value of Incorporating a Polygenic Risk Score with Nongenetic Factors for Predicting Breast Cancer Diagnosis in the UK Biobank.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2024Article
- The utility of quantifying the orientation of breast masses in ultrasound imaging.Scientific reports · 2024Article
6 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
13 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundExternal validation of risk models is critical for risk-stratified breast cancer prevention. We used the Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimation (iCARE) as a flexible tool for risk model development and comparative model validation and to make projections for population risk stratification.
methodsPerformance of two recently developed models, one based on the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium analysis (iCARE-BPC3) and another based on a literature review (iCARE-Lit), were compared with two established models (Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool and International Breast Cancer Intervention Study Model) based on classical risk factors in a UK-based cohort of 64 874 white non-Hispanic women (863 patients) age 35-74 years. Risk projections in a target population of US white non-Hispanic women age 50-70 years assessed potential improvements in risk stratification by adding mammographic breast density (MD) and polygenic risk score (PRS).
resultsThe best calibrated models were iCARE-Lit (expected to observed number of cases [E/O] = 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.87 to 1.11) for women younger than 50 years, and iCARE-BPC3 (E/O = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.93 to 1.09) for women 50 years or older. Risk projections using iCARE-BPC3 indicated classical risk factors can identify approximately 500 000 women at moderate to high risk (>3% 5-year risk) in the target population. Addition of MD and a 313-variant PRS is expected to increase this number to approximately 3.5 million women, and among them, approximately 153 000 are expected to develop invasive breast cancer within 5 years.
conclusionsiCARE models based on classical risk factors perform similarly to or better than BCRAT or IBIS in white non-Hispanic women. Addition of MD and PRS can lead to substantial improvements in risk stratification. However, these integrated models require independent prospective validation before broad clinical applications.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.