Ocean warming along temperate western boundaries of the Northern Hemisphere promotes an expansion of Cochlodinium polykrikoides blooms.

Since the early 1990s, ocean temperatures have increased and blooms of the icthyotoxic dinoflagellate Cochlodinium polykrikoides (a.k.a. Margalefidinium polykrikoides) have become more widespread across the Northern Hemisphere. This study used high-resolution (1-30 km), satellite-based sea surface temperature records since 1982 to model trends in growth and bloom season length for strains of C. polykrikoides inhabiting North American and East Asian coastlines to understand how warming has altered blooms in these regions. Methods provided approximately 180× greater spatial resolution than previous studies of the impacts of warming on harmful algae, providing novel insight into near shore, coastal environments. Along the US East Coast, significant increases in potential growth rates and bloom season length for North American ribotypes were observed with bloom-favourable conditions becoming established earlier and persisting longer from Chesapeake Bay through Cape Cod, areas where blooms have become newly established and/or intensified this century. Within the Sea of Japan, modelled mean potential growth rates and bloom season length of East Asian ribotypes displayed a significant positive correlation with rising sea surface temperatures since 1982, a period during which observed maximal cell densities of C. polykrikoides blooms have significantly increased. Results suggest that warming has contributed, in part, to altering the phenology of C. polykrikoides populations, potentially expanding its realized niche in temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere.