ArticleScientific reports2019
Safety margins and adaptive capacity of vegetation to climate change.
Article in Scientific reports, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Evidence for a trade-off between growth rate and xylem embolism resistance in 22 Eucalyptus species.The New phytologist · 2026Article
- Pervasive increase in tree mortality across the Australian continent.Nature plants · 2026Article
- Adaptation in Wood Anatomical Traits to Temperature and Precipitation-A Common Garden Study.Plant, cell & environment · 2025Article
- Future Climate Shifts for Vegetation on Australia's Coastal Islands.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Island Plant Species Distributions Contracted at the Cooler Edge Compared to Mainland.Ecology letters · 2025Article
- Article
- Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas and Priority Protection forPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Prediction of volatility and seasonality vegetation by using the GARCH and Holt-Winters models.Environmental monitoring and assessment · 2024Article
- Habitat suitability maps for Australian flora and fauna under CMIP6 climate scenarios.GigaScience · 2024Article
- Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement: An Australian mountain ecosystems case study.Global change biology · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Vegetation is composed of many individual species whose climatic tolerances can be integrated into spatial analyses of climate change risk. Here, we quantify climate change risk to vegetation at a continental scale by calculating the safety margins for warming and drying (i.e., tolerance to projected change in temperature and precipitation respectively) across plants sharing 100 km × 100 km grid cells (locations). These safety margins measure how much warmer, or drier, a location could become before its 'typical' species exceeds its observed climatic limit. We also analyse the potential adaptive capacity of vegetation to temperature and precipitation change (i.e., likelihood of in situ persistence) using median precipitation and temperature breadth across all species in each location. 47% of vegetation across Australia is potentially at risk from increases in mean annual temperature (MAT) by 2070, with tropical regions most vulnerable. Vegetation at high risk from climate change often also exhibited low adaptive capacity. By contrast, 2% of the continent is at risk from reductions in annual precipitation by 2070. Risk from precipitation change was isolated to the southwest of Western Australia where both the safety margin for drier conditions in the typical species is low, and substantial reductions in MAP are projected.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.