Effect of Probability Information on Bayesian Reasoning: A Study of Event-Related Potentials.

People often confront Bayesian reasoning problems and make decisions under uncertainty in daily life. However, the time course of Bayesian reasoning remains unclear. In particular, whether and how probabilistic information is involved in Bayesian reasoning is controversial, and its neural mechanisms have rarely been explored. In the current study, event-related potentials (ERP) were recorded from 18 undergraduates who completed four kinds of Bayesian reasoning tasks. It was found that compared with the high hit rate task, the low hit rate task elicited more significant N1 (100∼200 ms) and N300 (250∼350 ms) components, suggesting that N1 might be associated with the attention to stimulus materials, and N300 might be associated with the anchor to hit rate. In contrast to the low base rate task, the high base rate task elicited more significant late positive components (LPC, 350∼700 ms), indicating that LPC might reflect the adjustment of probability estimation based on the base rate. These results demonstrate that both the base rate and hit rate play significant roles in Bayesian reasoning, and to some extent, these findings verify that people may follow the "anchoring-adjustment" heuristic in Bayesian reasoning. The current findings provide further proof for the information processing mechanism of Bayesian reasoning.