ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2019
Historical and genomic data reveal the influencing factors on global transmission velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.
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Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed.
- The Role of the Caspian, Aral and Balkhash Lakes in the Spread and Preservation of Yersinia pestis in Eastern Europe and Central Asia in the 20th and 21st Centuries.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Genetic Diversity and Spatial Distribution ofMicroorganisms · 2026Article
- Spatial prediction of animal plague risk in Qinghai Province, China using MaxEnt modeling: implications for targeted control.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2026Article
- Molecular Tracing and Comparative Genomics Analysis ofPathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- The Indian Ocean Dipole drives imported-dominated dengue outbreaks in China: Mechanisms and predictions.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Plagued by the Past, Pressed by the Present: A One Health Perspective onBiomedicines · 2025Review
- How virus migration and meteorological elements shape the seasonality of influenza a/H3N2: A case study in China.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Pandemic Events Caused by Bacteria Throughout Human History and the Risks of Antimicrobial Resistance Today.Microorganisms · 2025Review
- Vulnerability characteristics and adaptation strategies of public health systems in different regions of China.Frontiers in public health · 2025Review
- Nanolipoprotein particle (NLP) vaccine confers protection againstFrontiers in immunology · 2025Article
- Transoceanic pathogen transfer in the age of sail and steam.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- High genetic diversity of the himalayan marmot relative to plague outbreaks in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China.BMC genomics · 2024Article
- Genomic diversity of Yersinia pestis from Yunnan Province, China, implies a potential common ancestor as the source of two plague epidemics.Communications biology · 2023Article
- Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Plagued by a cryptic clock: insight and issues from the global phylogeny of Yersinia pestis.Communications biology · 2023Article
- Article
- Retrospective analysis of dissemination of the 2.MED1 phylogenetic branch of Yersinia pestis in the Caucasus.PloS one · 2023Article
- No evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical and modern Europe.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Population genetic models for the spatial spread of adaptive variants: A review in light of SARS-CoV-2 evolution.PLoS genetics · 2022Review
- Sustained population decline of rodents is linked to accelerated climate warming and human disturbance.BMC ecology and evolution · 2022Article
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13 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Quantitative knowledge about which natural and anthropogenic factors influence the global spread of plague remains sparse. We estimated the worldwide spreading velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic, using more than 200 years of extensive human plague case records and genomic data, and analyzed the association of spatiotemporal environmental factors with spreading velocity. Here, we show that two lineages, 2.MED and 1.ORI3, spread significantly faster than others, possibly reflecting differences among strains in transmission mechanisms and virulence. Plague spread fastest in regions with low population density and high proportion of pasture- or forestland, findings that should be taken into account for effective plague monitoring and control. Temperature exhibited a nonlinear, U-shaped association with spread speed, with a minimum around 20 °C, while precipitation showed a positive association. Our results suggest that global warming may accelerate plague spread in warm, tropical regions and that the projected increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere may increase plague spread in relevant regions.
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