Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31133588›Full record

SynthesisBMJ open2019

Scanning the horizon: a systematic literature review of methodologies.

Philip Hines, Li Hiu Yu, Richard H Guy, Angela Brand, Marisa Papaluca-Amati

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMJ open, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
33citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

33 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. The Movement Disorder Society Criteria for the Diagnosis of Multiple System Atrophy.Movement disorders : official journal of the Movement Disorder Society · 2022
    Pooled it
  3. How Can Multi-Criteria Portfolio Decision Analysis Help Mitigate Mis/Disinformation?Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Reporting Horizon Scanning Studies: Prototype Development Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. New or repurposed: a novel classification system for the horizon scanning of innovative medicines.International journal of technology assessment in health care · 2024
    Article
  14. Ready, Set, Sort! A User-Guide to Card Sorts for Community-Engaged Empirical Bioethics.Journal of empirical research on human research ethics : JERHRE · 2024
    Article
  15. Mapping horizon scanning systems for medical devices: similarities, differences, and lessons learned.International journal of technology assessment in health care · 2023
    Review
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Horizon Scanning in Tissue Engineering Using Citation Network Analysis.Therapeutic innovation & regulatory science · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Philip HinesScientific Committees Regulatory Science Strategy, European Medicines Agency, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-3286-9336
Li Hiu YuScientific Committees Regulatory Science Strategy, European Medicines Agency, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Richard H GuyScientific Committees Regulatory Science Strategy, European Medicines Agency, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Angela BrandUNU-MERIT, United Nations University-Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Marisa Papaluca-AmatiScientific Committees Regulatory Science Strategy, European Medicines Agency, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesSociety is confronted with the rapid emergence of innovation in science and technology. To manage this, horizon scanning is being adopted globally to identify, assess and prioritise innovations and trends at an early stage of their development. This enables decision-makers to be better informed and to prepare for change. The aim of this paper is to systematically identify and evaluate horizon scanning methodologies employed in the healthcare and biomedical fields.

methodsA systematic literature review was performed using PubMed and Embase and was supplemented with grey literature searches (2008-2018). The principal methodologies used in horizon scanning were extracted.

resultsApproximately 100 articles were summarised in a literature map. The search revealed many examples of horizon scanning across disciplines. Challenges, such as the need to refine prioritisation criteria, manage uncertainty inherent in the findings and improve the dissemination of identified issues, have been highlighted.

conclusionHorizon scanning, when performed appropriately, is a flexible and potentially reliable tool, with a wide variety of methods. Horizon scanning can inform and influence decision-making, through identifying opportunities and challenges, from an organisational to an international level. Further research to identify the most effective methodologies available would add depth to this landscape and enable the evolution of best practice to most efficiently anticipate novel developments and innovations.

Indexed as

Diffusion of InnovationDecision MakingDelivery of Health CareHumansPolicy MakingTechnology Assessment, Biomedicalpublic healthqualitative research

Identifiers

PMID31133588
PMCPMC6549743

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.