ArticleBMJ open2019
Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in Pakistan: mathematical modelling projections.
Article in BMJ open, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 26 citations in OpenAlex.
- The status of hepatitis C virus infection among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2020Pooled it
- Characterization of the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Pakistan.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Pooled it
- Prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection in Qatar's resident population based on a national screening campaign.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa: mathematical modeling analyses of incidence and intervention impact.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- A Health Systems Strengthening Approach to Address the High Burden of Hepatitis C in Pakistan.Journal of viral hepatitis · 2025Review
- Changes in the prevalence of hepatitis B and C viral infections in Sindh province, Pakistan: Findings from two sero-surveys in 2007 and 2019.Journal of viral hepatitis · 2024Article
- Usability and acceptability of self-testing for hepatitis C virus exposure in a high-prevalence urban informal settlement in Karachi, Pakistan.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Article
- Article
- Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Patterns and trends of hepatitis C virus infection in Jordan: an observational study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Observational
- Characterizing trends and associations for hepatitis C virus antibody prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa: meta-regression analyses.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Modeling the population-level impact of treatment on COVID-19 disease and SARS-CoV-2 transmission.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Methods and indicators to validate country reductions in incidence of hepatitis C virus infection to elimination levels set by WHO.The lancet. Gastroenterology & hepatology · 2022Review
- HCV extinction analysis in district Gujrat, Pakistan by using SARIMA and linear regression models.Medicine · 2021Article
- Article
- Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Populations With Liver-Related Diseases in the Middle East and North Africa.Hepatology communications · 2020Article
- Key associations for hepatitis C virus genotypes in the Middle East and North Africa.Journal of medical virology · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveDirect-acting antivirals have opened an opportunity for controlling hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Pakistan, where 10% of the global infection burden is found. We aimed to evaluate the implications of five treatment programme scenarios for HCV treatment as prevention (HCV-TasP) in Pakistan.
designAn age-structured mathematical model was used to evaluate programme impact using epidemiological and programme indicators.
settingTotal Pakistan population.
participantsTotal Pakistan HCV-infected population.
interventionsHCV treatment programme scenarios from 2018 up to 2030.
resultsBy 2030 across the five HCV-TasP scenarios, 0.6-7.3 million treatments were administered, treatment coverage reached between 3.7% and 98.7%, prevalence of chronic infection reached 2.4%-0.03%, incidence reduction ranged between 41% and 99%, program-attributed reduction in incidence rate ranged between 7.2% and 98.5% and number of averted infections ranged between 126 221 and 750 547. Annual incidence rate reduction in the first decade of the programme was around 6%-18%. Number of treatments needed to prevent one new infection ranged between 4.7-9.8, at a drug cost of about US$900. Cost of the programme by 2030, in the most ambitious elimination scenario, reached US$708 million. Stipulated WHO target for 2030 cannot be accomplished without scaling up treatment to 490 000 per year, and maintaining it for a decade.
conclusionHCV-TasP is a highly impactful and potent approach to control Pakistan's HCV epidemic and achieve elimination by 2030.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.